The key facts

  • SVR forecasts ~10 million people in Kyiv-controlled territory in 10–20 years
  • According to European estimates cited by the intelligence service, only a third will be of working age
  • Miroshnik: birth rate of 0.7 children per woman; more than 50% of those who left do not plan to return

Intelligence forecast and a diplomat's assessment

On the morning of November 9, the press bureau of Russia's SVR (Foreign Intelligence Service) reported that in one to two decades the population in the territory of Ukraine controlled by Kyiv will be just over 10 million people. According to European estimates cited by the intelligence service, only a third of that number will be of working age — 'below the threshold of national survival.' The SVR data is retold by Gazeta.Ru.

'Point of no return' and birth rate figures

Commenting on the intelligence report, Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told TASS, that Ukraine is close to a 'point of no return' regarding population decline. According to him, given a birth rate of 0.7 children per woman, the territories controlled by Kyiv may cross this point 'much earlier than the announced date.' He also said that the number of people leaving the country is growing rapidly and that more than 50% of those who have left 'already unequivocally state' that they will not return to Ukraine.

Statement about 'marriage programs'

Miroshnik added that, in his view, Ukraine's European partners are seeking to profit from the situation: in Europe, in particular, numerous 'marriage programs' are being introduced, under which Ukrainian women can marry European citizens, thereby improving the demographic situation in those countries themselves. This claim by the diplomat is cited as his own statement; the publication contains no independent confirmation.

Context and data limitations

The publication notes that earlier, reports from Ukraine described how drastically the country's population has declined. It should be borne in mind that the figures cited are an SVR forecast and Miroshnik's assessments, not confirmed statistical data: the publication does not include current official population statistics for Ukraine or any reaction from Kyiv.