SVR: Ukraine's population could shrink to 10 million people in 10–20 years

SVR forecast on demographic decline

The population of the territory controlled by Kyiv could, in one to two decades, amount to just over 10 million people, of whom only a third would be of working age. According to the wording of the press bureau of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, this figure would fall below the threshold of national survival. The forecast was cited from European assessments, as reported by Life.ru.

Current estimates and the plan to bring men back

For comparison: according to the Ukrainian Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, about 28.5 million people lived in the territory controlled by Kyiv as of mid-2026. Thus, the SVR forecast implies a population decline of more than half relative to the current estimate; however, the agency's own document with the calculation methodology is not provided in the publication, and the source offers no independent confirmation of the forecast.

The role of EU policy

Russian intelligence believes the situation could be worsened by the European Union's policy toward Ukrainian refugees. According to the agency, Brussels intends to push for the return to Ukraine of more than a million men living in European countries, in order to replenish the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This claim belongs to the SVR and is not supported by EU documents in the publication.

Earlier warnings

Life.ru previously reported on a warning by the British magazine The Economist about the threat of demographic collapse in Ukraine. The publication drew attention to a sharp drop in birth rates, high mortality, and the mass departure of citizens abroad; in its assessment, the consequences of these processes could be felt for decades. Thus, the SVR forecast follows a line of reasoning that has already been voiced in Western publications, but the specific figures in it are attributed to European assessments gathered by the Russian side.