Russian intelligence claims the EU is pressuring Ukrainians to force them to return and fight

SVR statement

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said in a Telegram post on Monday, November 9, that EU leadership is 'increasingly searching for ways to make up for the catastrophic losses' of Ukraine's armed forces, and that this issue 'has reached Ukrainian citizens who found refuge in EU countries.' According to the intelligence service, Brussels views the more than one million Ukrainians living in the European Union as 'excellent expendable material' capable of giving a 'second wind' to the 'European regimes' aggression against Russia,' and plans to force them to return 'by any means.' This is reported by the Turkish agency Anadolu, which retells the SVR statement; the publication itself contains no independent confirmation of these claims.

What the SVR claims and what is known about EU decisions

The SVR named an August decision by the Council of the EU not to grant temporary protection status to Ukrainians of conscription age as the first step of such a plan, which, it says, 'severely limits access to the benefits of the European 'consumer society.'' By the end of the year, the intelligence service claims, the EU intends to create problems for draft evaders in obtaining financial services, finding work and renting housing, and 'Euro-bureaucrats' expect that many Ukrainians, upon returning home, 'will immediately find themselves in the thick of the fighting.'

The factual basis: the Council of the EU decision of July 30

Part of the facts cited in the publication is confirmed by the EU decisions themselves, which Anadolu writes about. On July 30, the Council of the EU adopted an implementing decision that entered into force on August 5: it extends temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 4, 2028, but requires new applicants to prove that they have fulfilled their military obligations in Ukraine. The requirement does not apply to those who already hold temporary protection valid until July 30, 2026, and have maintained that status continuously. EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Magnus Brunner said the initiative came from Kyiv, not from pressure by Brussels, and an unnamed EU official explained that the rule follows Ukraine's mobilization law and does not block other avenues of protection, such as asylum. According to Eurostat, as of March about 4.33 million Ukrainians held temporary protection in the EU.

Demographic estimates and what remains unknown

The SVR also cited European estimates according to which the population of the territory controlled by Kyiv will, in one or two decades, amount to just over 10 million people, of whom only a third will be of working age; the intelligence service further claimed that Brussels is thinking neither about the eurozone, which needs cheap Ukrainian labor, nor about Ukraine, which is 'on the verge of a demographic catastrophe.' These figures and estimates are given solely on the SVR's word. It remains unclear whether the claims about a plan to 'force a return by any means' and about upcoming restrictions for draft evaders have documentary confirmation: available sources rely exclusively on the Russian intelligence statement, while the EU's version — that the requirement for new applicants reflects Ukraine's mobilization law and came from Kyiv — directly contradicts it.