Economist forecasts the Central Bank’s key rate will remain at 14% until the end of the year

Rate forecast for December

According to the forecast of Candidate of Economic Sciences, docent, and lecturer at the Institute of International Economic Relations Sergey Suetin, the Bank of Russia may keep the key rate at 14% at its meeting on December 18. He told this to Gazeta.Ru. Earlier, in late October, the regulator already left the rate unchanged at 14% — thus, the forecast suggests a continuation of the current pause in monetary policy.

What is expected for deposits, loans, and the exchange rate

“We expect the pause to continue. In the coming weeks, there are insufficient grounds to expect a rapid easing of inflationary pressure that would allow a significant loosening of monetary policy. At the same time, banks’ deposit offers may improve somewhat even without a change in the key rate,” Suetin noted. He suggested that the yield on certain deposits could rise by a few tenths of a percentage point and linked this to the cost of raising funds and seasonal competition among banks for clients’ money: at the end of the year, special limited-time offers may appear. The economist does not expect any significant change in loan rates; however, in his view, banks and developers may adjust their joint programs, offering individual terms for purchasing housing. According to Suetin, the ruble exchange rate may maintain strong positions over the next six months, supported by export earnings and the high rate, although exchange rate fluctuations will continue.