The key facts

  • Ilya Fedorov (BCS World of Investments) estimated the budget's additional financing need at about 2.5 trillion rubles relative to the projected level.
  • According to his calculations, compensating this amount through the exchange rate alone would require a weakening of the ruble by roughly 30% from its current level.
  • Under that scenario, the economist said, foreign-currency expenditures, inflation and the key rate would rise — to about 20% — and with it, spending on subsidizing interest-rate risk.

Devaluation does not work as a way to plug the budget hole, the economist believes

A weaker ruble does indeed increase ruble revenues from oil and gas exports, but at the same time it can raise budget expenditures. This was stated to Gazeta.Ru by the chief economist of BCS World of Investments, Ilya Fedorov.

The price of the question is 2.5 trillion rubles and a rate of about 20%

According to Fedorov's estimate, the budget's additional financing needs could amount to about 2.5 trillion rubles relative to the projected level. To compensate for such an amount solely through the exchange rate would require a weakening of the ruble by roughly 30% from its current level. At the same time, the economist noted, foreign-currency expenditures would also grow in that case, and inflation would require raising the key rate to about 20%, which would in turn increase spending on subsidizing interest-rate risk.

The exchange rate cannot be set arbitrarily

Fedorov emphasized that additional export revenues cannot be considered in isolation from the rising cost of purchases and of servicing programs related to lending. The exchange rate, in his words, usually changes under the influence of terms of trade and other economic factors — it cannot be arbitrarily set at a level that would provide the budget with the required amount. He called the notion of a single 'favorable rate' for the budget and citizens too simplistic: for assessing purchasing power, it is more useful to take into account the real exchange rate — adjusted for price changes.

Context

A Gazeta.Ru publication dated November 8, 2026 refers to an earlier report by the same outlet in which a condition for the weakening of the ruble was named; the content of that condition is not disclosed in the available material. The estimates of 2.5 trillion rubles and a rate of about 20% belong to Fedorov and are his expert calculation, not official data from the Finance Ministry or the Bank of Russia.