The key facts

  • UNHCR forecasts that by the end of 2026, 3 million people in East Africa may lose their homes due to El Niño.
  • Nearly 90 million displaced people worldwide live in countries highly vulnerable to climate threats.
  • Over the past decade, weather disasters have caused more than 255 million internal displacements — about 70,000 a day.

Forecast for East Africa

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has published a report on its website according to which, by the end of 2026, 3 million people in East Africa may lose their homes due to the El Niño climate phenomenon. The forecast concerns Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda, where severe flooding is expected amid El Niño. Gazeta.Ru reports this citing the document.

Displaced people on the front line of the climate crisis

The report notes that nearly 90 million displaced people worldwide live in countries highly vulnerable to climate threats, and three quarters of all displaced people are in states suffering from severe drought, deadly floods and extreme heat. More than two thirds of refugees who returned home in the first half of this year went to countries extremely vulnerable to climate threats. The agency stresses that climate change is increasingly threatening the UN's long-term solutions for displaced people.

Statements and context

Commenting on the report, UNHCR Assistant High Commissioner for Operations Anton Leis Garcia noted that refugees forced to flee their homes because of conflict find themselves 'on the front line of the climate crisis', even though they contributed the least to it. 'For millions of people, climate change is not a distant threat. It destroys homes, undermines livelihoods and jeopardizes their hopes of rebuilding their lives,' Gazeta.Ru quotes him as saying. According to the report, by 2050 every third refugee settlement in sub-Saharan Africa will endure at least 100 days a year of heat threatening health and life, and over the past decade weather disasters have caused more than 255 million internal displacements worldwide — roughly 70,000 a day. The publication is timed to the COP31 climate conference in Turkey, which opens in a few days.