The key facts

  • The total fertility rate fell from 1.2 in 2020 to 0.8–0.9 in 2026, while a level of 2.1 is needed for population replacement
  • According to The Economist, about five million Ukrainians have left for Western countries
  • Institute of Demography director Ella Libanova stated that the country lost another 500,000 people in six months, with a population of 28.5 million

The magazine pointed to record-low birth rates

Ukraine risks facing a demographic collapse whose consequences could be felt for decades, writes the British magazine The Economist. According to the publication, the total fertility rate in the country has fallen from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to 0.8–0.9 in 2026. This is one of the lowest figures among major states: the only worse situation, according to the magazine, is in South Korea. For simple population replacement in the long term, a level of about 2.1 children per woman is needed.

Population outflow and deaths exceeding births

The Economist names mass emigration as the second serious challenge: according to the magazine, about five million Ukrainian citizens have left for Western countries. The outflow, combined with natural population decline, creates long-term risks for the country's demographic future, and the continuation of the armed conflict, the publication notes, only worsens the situation. As further evidence of the crisis, Life.ru cites the words of the head of the Ukrainian office of migration policy, Vasyl Voskoboynyk: in the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine turned out to be 3.5 times higher than the number of births.

Estimates by Ukrainian demographers differ

The figures cited by Ukrainian officials differ from the magazine's data. On October 22, Ella Libanova, director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, stated that over the past six months the country had lost another 500,000 people, and that 28.5 million people currently live in the country. Meanwhile, as Gazeta.Ru notes, there are also more pessimistic estimates of the population size. Earlier, the Ukrainian financier Serhiy Fursa, according to Life.ru, predicted a mass influx of foreign workers into Ukraine due to an acute labor shortage: in his view, the number of arrivals may eventually exceed the number of native residents, and he linked negative attitudes toward such changes to the influence of Russian propaganda.