The key facts

  • COP31 will take place in Antalya on 9–20 November, with the leaders' summit on 11–12 November
  • ECMWF develops forecasting in cooperation with 35 countries
  • AI makes heat and storm forecasts faster and more accurate, but requires action from authorities

Forecasts matter only when paired with action

Florian Pappenberger, Director-General of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said that the upcoming UN climate summit COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, offers an opportunity to link advances in climate analytics with preparedness and early warning systems. He spoke at a virtual press conference organized by the EU climate agency Copernicus, reports Anadolu.

AI improves forecasting

According to Pappenberger, progress in artificial intelligence is markedly improving forecast quality and making it possible to warn earlier about heatwaves and storms. He stressed that AI-based forecasting delivers results faster and more accurately, but both technologies — classical and AI models — should be evaluated in parallel. 'Real difference is made by people's decisions,' he noted, adding that improved forecasts must be accompanied by effective action from authorities and emergency planning services. ECMWF, he said, is working to help national meteorological and hydrological services apply new technologies with greater confidence and issue earlier warnings. The Centre is developing forecasting capabilities in partnership with 35 countries.

Climate records as a call to action

Vincent-Henri Peuch, ECMWF's Director for EU Relations, pointed to the accumulation of climate records — anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat, intense wildfires — as tangible evidence of climate change. In his assessment, these phenomena raise risks for people, ecosystems and economies and reinforce the need for urgent global action. He called the climate agenda a key priority of COP31, and climate records not only an 'alarm signal' but also a call to action.

Summit format

COP31 will be held in southern Turkey's Antalya from 9 to 20 November, bringing together world leaders, experts and civil society representatives. The summit of heads of state and government is scheduled for 11–12 November.