Central Bank of Uzbekistan raises year-end inflation forecast to 7%

Forecast revised due to utility tariffs

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 from 6.5% to 7%. The announcement was made at a press conference on November 4, Kun.uz reports.

What the regulator said

At the press conference, the regulator was asked to what extent the plans to raise heating tariffs by 30% are factored into inflation forecasts and policy rate decisions. Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Nodirbek Ochilov explained that the regulator has included all announced changes to regulated prices in its calculations, including heat supply tariffs. According to him, one-off effects from tariff increases — both for liquefied gas and heating — are factored into the current forecast, and all announced changes are also built into next year's projections: «From this point of view, when 7% is mentioned, all factors have been taken into account».

Why the forecast changed

Samijon Inoyamov, director of the Central Bank's monetary policy department, clarified that the increase in prices for hot water and heating was taken into account in the original forecasts as well, but the tariffs rose more than expected. That is why the year-end forecast was revised upward from 6.5% to 7%. For reference: under the regulator's previous forecasts, inflation for the year was expected to be around 6.5%, while as of September it stood at 6.4%.