After the Republicans' defeat in the US midterms, the battle for the 2028 nomination intensifies

Republican defeat reshuffles the 2028 landscape

According to AFP, the Republicans' crushing defeat in the midterm elections changed not only the balance of power in Congress but also the unofficial race for the 2028 US presidential nomination. The MAGA coalition that secured Trump's victories in 2016 and 2024 has, in the agency's wording, effectively fallen apart following Tuesday's voting, and any likely Trump successor in the party now faces a difficult task.

Vance — the biggest loser

AFP names Vice President JD Vance as the most obvious casualty of the election results. Until now he was considered the almost unchallenged favorite for the Republican nomination and campaigned in swing states, tying himself to Trump. The 42-year-old vice president has already tried to distance himself from the electoral fiasco: in a lengthy post on X on Wednesday, he blamed Trump's unpopular war with Iran. The agency notes, however, that voters are unlikely to accept attempts to disown Trump, and cites James Lindsay of the Council on Foreign Relations: sitting vice presidents rarely win presidential elections. AFP recalls that Kamala Harris faced a similar problem in 2024, when she failed to name how she differed from Joe Biden.

Other Republicans and Democrats

Besides Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is being discussed; he stayed in the shadows during the campaign, but in AFP's assessment it will be hard for any senior administration official to distance themselves from the war with Iran. The defeat may be a chance for others: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who already ran against Trump in 2024, called the election results 'the political equivalent of a meteorite falling' and stressed that only in Florida did the Republicans hold back the Democrats. Texas Senator Ted Cruz has also left the door open, although Republican losses in his state may have weakened his position.

Democrats have new favorites

Among the Democrats, the midterms strengthened the positions of rising politicians. The re-election of 39-year-old Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who is compared to Barack Obama, fueled talk of his candidacy, although he himself said he has 'no interest whatsoever' in running for president. Before the election, Kamala Harris was considered the favorite for the nomination, but there are those in the party who prefer a candidate without a record of lost campaigns. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro was successfully re-elected, while outgoing California Governor Gavin Newsom predicted back in September that Trump's presidency 'in its current form would end' after the midterm elections. Among possible candidates, AFP also names Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said in September that she was considering running, as well as Rahm Emanuel, JB Pritzker, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly.