The key facts
- Decision Desk HQ puts Democrats' chances of a House majority at 84%, and the Republicans' at 16%
- Forecast: 241 seats for Democrats versus 194 for Republicans, with a threshold of 218 seats
- Democrats earlier won a Senate seat in North Carolina — the first since 2008
Midterm election forecast
The American analytics service Decision Desk HQ has estimated the probability that the Democratic Party will regain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm congressional elections at 84%. The model put the Republicans' chances of keeping their majority at 16%. This is reported by Life.ru citing the service's forecasting model.
Seat breakdown
According to the model, Democrats could win 241 of the 435 House seats, with Republicans taking 194. A party needs at least 218 seats to control the lower chamber of Congress. With this distribution, Democrats would not only regain the majority but also hold a 47-seat advantage. This is a forecast, not an official result: actual election outcomes may differ from the model's estimates.
Context: a Senate success
Life.ru previously reportedthat Democrats took a Senate seat from Republicans thanks to the victory of former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, who defeated Michael Whatley, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, who was backed by Donald Trump. Cooper will take the seat of Senator Thom Tillis, who chose not to run for re-election. For Democrats, this is the first Senate seat won in North Carolina since 2008, narrowing the party's gap with the Republicans.
