Uzbekistan's Central Bank keeps the key rate at 14% and raises its inflation forecast to 7%

The rate remains at 14%

The Board of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, at its meeting on November 4, decided to keep the key rate at 14% per annum. This was reported by the regulator's press service; the decision is confirmed by a press release on the Central Bank's website. As Gazeta.uznotes, the rate has not changed since March 2025, when it was raised from 13.5% to 14% amid growing inflationary pressure; at the previous meeting on September 16 it was also left unchanged.

Why the rate is not being changed

The regulator explains the decision by persisting inflationary pressure, despite a decline in inflation expectations. In September, annual inflation was 6.4% versus 6.2% in August — the acceleration is linked to rising prices for fruit and vegetables, fuel and certain services; inflation in the services sector reached 7%, while core inflation remained at 5.5%. Expectations among the population for the next 12 months fell to 8.7%, and among entrepreneurs to 9.2%. At the same time, the Central Bank points to high domestic demand exceeding the economy's production potential, volatility of global food prices, and the risk of rising energy prices, which affect domestic prices through imports, production and transport costs.

Forecasts revised in both directions

Alongside the rate decision, the Central Bank raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 6.5% to about 7% — due to high domestic demand, external risks related to energy resources, and planned increases in certain regulated prices. The regulator considers the direct effect of regulated price increases to be short-lived and expected to be exhausted in 2027; by the end of 2027, inflation is forecast to decline to the target level of 5%. The GDP growth forecast, by contrast, has been improved: whereas in July the Central Bank expected growth of 7.5–8%, it now expects about 8% for the year. In January–September 2026, the economy grew by 8.3%, with industry, construction and services making the main contribution.

What's next

Keeping the rate at 14% should, in the regulator's view, limit the spillover of regulated price increases to other goods and to inflation expectations, while positive real rates on deposits and loans in sums should support the attractiveness of savings in the national currency. Further rate decisions will depend on inflation dynamics, inflation expectations, domestic demand and external economic risks. The next meeting to review the key rate is scheduled for December 16, 2026.