The key facts

  • Trump told the New York Post that if Democrats win, he will 'veto everything' on their legislative agenda
  • The White House is prepared to respond to investigations and possible impeachment; Trump floated retaliation through the Justice Department
  • In foreign policy, a 'lame duck' retains broad powers: new operations against Iran are possible, along with continued talks on Ukraine

The 'Lame Duck' Scenario

On November 3, the eve of the US midterm congressional elections, the AFP news agency published an analysis of what Donald Trump's second term could look like if Republicans lose control of one or both chambers of Congress on Tuesday. Analysts warn that Trump, in the status of a 'lame duck' — a president with limited influence at the end of his term — could turn out to be 'the most vengeful of all.'

Confrontation with Congress

Trump himself has made it clear he intends to act tough. 'If we don't win, I will veto everything' in any Democratic legislative agenda, he told the New York Post. According to AFP, the White House is prepared to fend off investigations and possible impeachment proceedings that Democrats may initiate. 'They will probably go after me, and I will go after them,' Trump said in an interview with Time; the agency suggests he could task the Department of Justice with investigating the Democrats conducting inquiries into him. There is also noted risk of interference in the elections themselves: Trump, who baselessly contested his 2020 election defeat, could dispute the vote count or delay certification of contested results.

Foreign Policy and Trade

Foreign policy is the only area where lame-duck presidents retain broad powers. Trump could resume large-scale military operations against Iran, although on the eve of the elections he signaled that new talks could lead to a deal. There are rumors of the possible dismissal of Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth amid the protracted war with Iran. On Ukraine, new trilateral talks are planned for next week, and Trump will continue pressing Kyiv to agree to a settlement with Russia. At the same time, he will seek détente with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin — the three could potentially meet at a summit in China later this month. Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution believes the US will continue, and possibly accelerate, the reduction of its presence among NATO allies, but will remain 'ruthlessly active' in trade, as the recent confrontation with Canada showed.

Legacy and Washington

After the elections, domestic policy may shift toward a personal agenda. Trump, who hosted the TV show 'The Apprentice,' is evasive about endorsing Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the 2028 election, but, according to American University professor Allan Lichtman, he will surely 'keep the focus on himself, playing the role of kingmaker.' He has largely stopped hinting at a constitutionally prohibited third term. In his final campaign speech, Trump barely talked about policy, instead speaking about the reconstruction of the Reflecting Pool near the Lincoln Memorial and plans to beautify Washington: 'We have a lot of great things planned for Washington,' he said at the pool on Monday.