The key facts
- At the start of the week, nighttime temperatures in Karakalpakstan down to −5; from Wednesday, moist air masses from the south and light precipitation
- From the second half of the week, sharp warming: daytime +20…+23, up to +28 in the south and deserts
- In Tashkent, until November 8, elevated levels of fine particles in the air persist due to light wind and inversion
A cold start to the week and gradual warming
The week of November 2–8 in Uzbekistan will begin with localized cooling and end with noticeable warming. According to the weekly review by climatologist Erkin Abdullakhatov, published by Gazeta, at the start of the week parts of Karakalpakstan will lie on the southeastern edge of a cold anticyclone: on the night of November 2 temperatures there will drop to −2…−4, and by the author's estimate — down to −5 degrees. This synoptic process will not deeply affect the whole republic, but it will make Monday a slightly cool day.
Precipitation in the middle of the week
On November 4–5, moist air flows will arrive from the south, bringing light precipitation in places. According to Uzhydromet forecasts, on November 4 precipitation is possible in the Bukhara and Navoi regions, on November 4–5 in the Tashkent, Jizzakh, Syrdarya, Samarkand, Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya regions, on November 5 in places in the Fergana Valley; from November 3–5 precipitation is expected in the mountains. No precipitation is forecast for the remaining days. In the mountains, precipitation will mostly fall as snow, and its total amount in the high mountains may reach 50 mm.
Sharp warming toward the weekend
From Friday, temperatures will rise sharply, and this will continue through the weekend. Nighttime minimums in the southern regions will be +5…+10, in other areas +2…+7, and in the mountains down to 0 at night and in places down to −3. From the second half of the week, daytime temperatures will warm to +20…+23, in desert and southern regions up to +25…+28, and in the mountains up to +10…+15. Fogs are possible in places at the start of the week.
Warmer than the climate norm
The foreign weather bureau Meteoinfo.ru estimates the average temperature of the working days of the week across most of Uzbekistan at 4 degrees or more above the long-term climate norm (excluding the cool Monday). According to another Uzhydromet report and data from the European centre ECMWF, across most of the republic the average weekly temperature will be 3–6 degrees above the norm; in the northern and desert regions of the Kyzylkum, the week is expected to be humid. The author of the review sums up: the week will be noticeably warm, dusty rains will pass in the middle of the week, and snow will fall in the high mountains.
Light wind and air pollution in Tashkent
Uzhydromet does not flag the possibility of strong winds during the week, however it warnedthat in the capital, until November 8, elevated levels of fine particulate matter in the air will persist due to light wind and the phenomenon of inversion. A sharp rise in dust levels or large-scale dust storms are not yet forecast — no meteorological prerequisites for this are visible. In case of deteriorating air quality, the Sanitary-Epidemiological Committee has published recommendations for different age groups and for the sick, which are worth reviewing in advance.
Magnetic storms and health
According to solar activity forecasts, magnetic storms of yellow and green danger levels are expected on the working days of the week, and only on Friday red-level storms are possible. At the same time, the author of the review emphasizes: there are still no definitive scientific conclusions about the effect of magnetic storms on human health, so it would be a mistake to claim that such a cosmic factor will definitely affect one's well-being. Overall, according to the review, the week's weather will not directly affect health, but air pollution with fine PM2.5 particles in large cities may affect certain groups of people.
