US Senate election in Texas: Talarico could take the seat from Republicans for the first time since 1988

The key facts

James Talarico, 37, leads in polls by a small margin within the margin of error
James Talarico, 37, leads by a small margin within the margin of error, according to polls
The campaign has become the most expensive in US Senate election history — more than $500 million
Musk spent more than $170 million against Talarico, Trump's MAGA committee $40 million; Talarico himself raised over $140 million
Musk has contributed more than $170 million against Talarico, Trump's MAGA committee $40 million; Talarico himself has raised over $140 million

The race that became the most expensive in Senate history

The US Senate election in Texas has become one of the main storylines of the midterm elections: its outcome will determine the balance of power in next year's Congress, and for both parties the stakes are higher than usual. This is reported by BBC News in a piece by North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher. Democrats have not won a statewide election in Texas for more than three decades, and their candidate — 37-year-old state legislator James Talarico — holds, according to polls, a 'thin but steady' lead over Republican Ken Paxton. A victory would mean the first 'blueing' of a Texas Senate seat since 1988. Total campaign spending has exceeded half a billion dollars — the most expensive Senate election in US history.

Why Republicans are worried

Republican anxiety is visible in their own actions: Trump held a rally with Paxton in reliably Republican Lubbock — just a few miles from the venue where Talarico spoke — which, in the BBC's assessment, signals concern about turnout even in the most conservative districts. Senator Ted Cruz said on his podcast: 'Understand, we could lose Texas. Democrats are massively outpacing Republicans in turnout.' Candidate for state comptroller Don Huffines put it even more bluntly: 'When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.' Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser called the situation a 'perfect storm': voters are worried about high prices, including gasoline, for which they largely blame Trump's tariff policy and the war with Iran; corruption has become a growing theme; Latino voters, many of whom backed Trump in 2024, have cooled on the administration's immigration policy. Data center construction in rural areas has also become a problem — Governor Greg Abbott recently announced a one-year moratorium on building AI facilities in the state.

Money, dirt and the shadow of 2018

Paxton, who defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the primary, carries significant baggage into the campaign: a 2015 federal securities fraud charge (later dropped) and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives on charges of corruption, bribery and abuse of power — the state senate later acquitted him after Trump's intervention. A massive negative advertising campaign has been launched against Talarico, a large share of it funded by Elon Musk: according to the BBC, Musk alone poured more than $170 million into the race, while Trump's MAGA Inc. committee added another $40 million. The ads targeted Talarico's past statements about transgender people, about 'radicalized white men' as a threat of domestic terrorism, and his criticism of the oil and gas and meat industries; the candidate said some of the quotes were taken out of context. Talarico himself raised more than $140 million and set a three-month fundraising record for a Senate candidate. At the same time, the BBC recalls the precedent of 2018: Beto O'Rourke also raised record sums and ultimately lost to Cruz by a margin of just over 2%, and Talarico's polling lead remains within the margin of error — late Republican appeals and Trump's visits could boost conservative turnout on election day.