The key facts

  • Axios: Trump's decision on a strike against Iran may depend on the outcome of the midterm elections; the White House rejects this
  • Qatari mediators spent more than 12 hours in Tehran; talks continue in Doha
  • Negotiations have stalled over mutual demands: nuclear concessions versus lifting the maritime blockade

Elections and a possible strike: conflicting signals from Washington

US President Donald Trump may be more inclined to approve a large-scale military operation against Iran if the Republican Party fails in next week's midterm elections. This is reported by Anadolu, citing an Axios publication, in which an unnamed American official stated: 'If he feels humiliated or slighted, he will do something bold.' According to this source, it is precisely this signal that is being conveyed to Iranian officials, who are being made to understand that the best chance for a deal is now.

The White House rejects any link to the elections

This version prompted an immediate rebuff from the administration: a White House spokesperson told Axios that election results will not influence Trump's decisions on Iran. Thus, the publication records a contradiction between an anonymous source within American structures and the position of the administration itself, and neither version can be confirmed for now.

Qatari mediation and the deadlock in negotiations

In parallel, the diplomatic track continues. Qatari mediators spent more than 12 hours in Tehran on Friday, maintaining constant contact with the White House in order to resume direct talks between Washington and Tehran. A diplomatic source described the situation as 'positive progress'; the discussions are to continue on Saturday in Doha. According to Axios, Doha is urging Iran to allow UN inspectors into nuclear facilities damaged by the bombing in exchange for a limited easing of sanctions.

The essence of the disagreements and the split in Trump's circle

The talks have stalled over mutual demands, the American official notes: Washington insists on nuclear concessions as a condition for returning to negotiations, while Tehran demands first the lifting of the maritime blockade, the unfreezing of funds and permission to sell oil. Within Trump's circle, according to the publication, there is a split: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are skeptical of any deal and advocate further weakening of the Iranian leadership, whereas Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner support resuming negotiations. The publication appeared against the backdrop of escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — a key route for global energy supplies. The US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, prompting retaliatory actions by Tehran in the region; despite subsequent diplomatic efforts and a memorandum signed by Washington and Tehran in June, disagreements over security and shipping through the strait persist.