The key facts

  • Intel forecasts revenue of $15–16 billion in the fourth quarter versus analysts' expectations of about $17 billion
  • The value of the US government's stake fell by $12 billion, but the investment is still profitable — shares have risen more than 70% over the year
  • Data center revenue grew 78%, but the next fab in Arizona will not start operating until 2028

One of the worst drops in the company's history

On October 30, 2026, Intel shares plunged by roughly 28% — one of the worst trading days in the company's history. The trigger was a weak fourth-quarter forecast: Intel expects revenue of $15–16 billion, while analysts had anticipated about $17 billion. The company also warned that its gross margin would fall from 43% to 37%, and that due to massive investments, no positive cash flow is expected this quarter. According to CNBC, which TechCrunchcites, the value of the US government's stake — about 10% of shares, purchased more than a year ago under the Trump administration — shrank by $12 billion in a single day. The sell-off swept through the entire chipmaking sector as well: Nvidia, which also bought a large stake in Intel in 2025, fell noticeably too.

Why AI is hurting PC sales

Intel's main problem, according to its CEO Lip-Bu Tan, is the shortage of memory and components being snapped up by the AI industry. «Our customers have begun signaling a slowdown in the PC market due to memory prices and availability. Since the beginning of the year, system prices have risen noticeably, creating additional pressure on already constrained IT budgets,» he said on an investor call. Earlier data backs this up: back in June, TechCrunch wrote about rising computer prices, when Apple raised the prices of Macs and iPads, while leaving the iPhone untouched for now. In other words, pressure on PC prices has been building for several months, and Intel is one of the main casualties, since its core business depends precisely on this market.

Light at the end of the tunnel — but not before 2028

The only strong segment is data centers: their revenue grew 78% year over year. However, Intel is constrained by manufacturing capacity: to grow the business, it needs to fill its own fabs with external customers, competing with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. One new fab in Arizona is already operating, but the next one, according to the company's forecast, will not come online before 2028. Despite the crash, the US government's investment (and Nvidia's) remains profitable for now: since the beginning of the year, Intel shares have gained more than 70%, although they have retreated noticeably from their summer highs.