Flavio Bolsonaro: From Presidential Race Favorite to Self-Exile in Florida

Defeat and a Secret Departure

Just a few days ago, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro was confident he would become Brazil's next president and carry on the work of his father — far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro. However, after losing the runoff to incumbent president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, his scenario collapsed: on Tuesday, according to AFP, he secretly left Brazil — his route went through Argentina and Ecuador while the whole country wondered where he was. On Wednesday he arrived in Florida with his wife Fernanda, a dentist, and their two daughters.

How the Election Unfolded

In the first round, Bolsonaro beat Lula — 47% against the incumbent's 45%. But in the runoff, Lula staged a comeback, winning with 52% against 48%. Despite the defeat, Bolsonaro received nearly 60 million votes. He refused to concede and promised to challenge the result in the courts: 'I will not abandon my Brazil,' he said on Sunday, and also assured that he had no intention of leaving the country when the authorities demanded he surrender his passports. AFP notes that no candidate who lost the first round has won the runoff in Brazil since 1989 — the first direct elections after the military dictatorship.

Why the Campaign Failed to Hold Its Lead

According to Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, quoted by AFP, the first-round victory became 'poison' for Bolsonaro's campaign, creating the impression that victory had already been secured. Critics pointed to his excessive overconfidence: allies were already publicly dividing up government posts. Lula, according to AFP, was mobilized by his first-round loss, which galvanized the left-wing electorate and brought him victory.

The Heir and His Baggage of Investigations

The 45-year-old senator was little known nationally when his father named him heir to the far-right movement — Jair Bolsonaro himself is serving a 27-year sentence for organizing a coup after losing to Lula in the 2022 election. Flavio positioned himself as a more moderate and charming Bolsonaro, repeating: 'I have Bolsonaro blood in my veins.' He was born in the state of Rio de Janeiro, was elected to the state legislature at 21, became a senator at 37, and has a law degree. His career was accompanied by accusations: as a state deputy, he was accused of a kickback scheme involving his aides' salaries, but the case was closed; he was also suspected of ties to Rio de Janeiro's criminal militias — all of which he denies. Among the ongoing investigations, Brazilian police are examining a corruption case concerning the financing of the biopic about his father, 'The Dark Horse,' paid for by the discredited banker Daniel Vorcaro.

Ties to the US and Family

Bolsonaro maintained close ties with the administration of Donald Trump — an ally of his father, who called the Sunday elections 'a sham.' His brother Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has also self-exiled to the US, said even before the election: 'If my brother doesn't win, I'm in favor of him leaving the country.' AFP does not report what will happen to the legal challenge to the results and the investigations after the senator's departure.