The key facts

  • The winner of the 2026 Ballon d'Or will be announced on October 26 at a ceremony in London
  • According to Polymarket, Harry Kane is the favorite with a probability of 67%, Mbappé — 23%, Yamal — 9%
  • Voting is complete, but the winner has not yet been announced to the footballers

Ranking of contenders on the eve of the ceremony

The Polymarket platform has released an updated ranking of the main contenders for the 2026 Ballon d'Or, reports Daryo.uz. Thirty players have been nominated for the most prestigious individual award in world football. The winner will be announced today, October 26, at a special ceremony in London.

Kane is the main favorite

According to Polymarket, the main favorite is Bayern striker Harry Kane: his probability of winning is estimated at 67%. In second place is the captain of the France national team and Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé, with 23%; the outlet notes that his chances are growing as the ceremony approaches. Third is Barcelona and Spain winger Lamine Yamal (9%). Closing out the top four is eight-time award winner Lionel Messi of Inter Miami with 1%. According to Polymarket, the probability of the remaining 25 nominees winning is less than 1%.

Voting is complete, the winner is unknown

The organizers noted that voting for the award has already ended, but none of the footballers have yet been informed of a victory. Thus, the Polymarket ranking reflects only market expectations, not the official result: the outcome will be known only during the ceremony in London.

Context

Polymarket's data represents prediction market estimates, not the opinion of the Ballon d'Or jury, so they show the balance of expectations but do not guarantee the outcome. For fans and clubs, the ranking sets the picture of the day: Kane's favoritism with a 44-percentage-point lead over Mbappé looks convincing, but the organizers emphasize that the winner has not been officially announced, and the final answer will be given only at the ceremony on October 26.