The key facts

  • No deal is expected before the US midterm elections on November 3
  • The White House is focused on the election campaign
  • In August, Trump threatened to raise tariffs to 50% starting January 1, 2027

Talks frozen until the election

Canada and the United States, it appears, will not conclude a trade agreement before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3. This is reported by the Canadian public broadcaster CBC News, whose article is cited by Anadolu. Citing three unnamed sources, CBC reports that Canadian officials in recent weeks have notified industry associations: no agreement is expected before the election, and although contacts between representatives of the two sides continue, there is no substantive engagement on the issues at hand.

The White House is busy with the campaign, Ottawa is in no hurry

According to CBC's sources, the White House is fully focused on the election campaign: President Donald Trump is spending a significant portion of his time at rallies, and polls show that the Republican Party could lose its majority in the House of Representatives and possibly in the Senate. The government's position was confirmed by Canada's Minister of Trade, Dominic LeBlanc, in an interview with CBC: “We have continued to stay in touch with the United States. But we will not rush into any particular scenario and… agree to something that we believe does not serve Canada's sovereign or economic interests.” Brian Clow, a former deputy chief of staff to ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, noted that the bet on the unpopularity of the trade war among some American voters did not pay off: “That window appears to have closed completely.”

The tariff threat and Washington's position

In August, Trump, in a post on the Truth Social platform, threatened to raise tariffs on automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and steel to 50% starting January 1, 2027. LeBlanc said that Washington has not yet taken any official steps, but called the threat “obviously concerning.” Thus, against the backdrop of a lack of progress in the negotiations, the risk of a tougher tariff regime also remains. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, according to CBC, rejected claims that Canada is being singled out, saying that the tariffs “are not focused on any one country.” For Canadian industry, the practical takeaway of the current situation is this: no new agreements should be expected before November 3, and the question of a tariff increase remains open.