The key facts
- Texas accounted for about a third of all ICE arrests in the U.S. in July 2026 — more than any other state
- Trump received about 55% of the Latino vote in Texas in 2024 — a record for a Republican candidate
- Polls after the summer of 2026 show a majority of Texas Latinos disapprove of Trump and prefer Democrats
A Shift in Mood in the Rio Grande Valley
In the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, where Latino voters overwhelmingly backed Donald Trump in 2024, polls are registering an ebb of that support. Roy Snipes, the chaplain of the La Lomita chapel, known as the 'Cowboy Preacher,' criticized the actions of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) at a Friday service: in his words, there is no justification for detaining and deporting 'poor, good people who are our neighbors.' He noted that while the fight against cartels is justified, in practice ordinary working people are being detained. According to government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project, Texas accounted for about a third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026 — more than any other state.
The Border and Deportations Are Different Issues
Trump promised to stop illegal border crossings and largely fulfilled that promise: crossings are at their lowest level in decades. This is largely what secured him about 55% of the Latino vote in Texas — a record for a Republican candidate. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, thanked the administration for securing the border and considers the deportation of criminals justified, but added that problems begin when productive, law-abiding people are deported. Businessman Mario Guerrero, who voted for Trump three times, plans to vote for Democrats: in his words, voters were not told 'how far' the administration was prepared to go. He cites the example of an acquaintance who now gets four to six workers coming instead of 35. Republican consultant Mike Madrid notes that Latinos are more likely than other groups to identify as independents rather than as adherents of one of the parties.
Redrawn Districts in Question
The belief that Latino voters had shifted to the Republicans for good prompted Trump to push for an early redrawing of Texas's electoral maps. The 15th District, redrawn in 2025 with a nominal Republican advantage of 18 points, became a test of whether maps can guarantee an outcome: current polls show Democrats leading by five to six points. The Democratic candidate — popular Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner Bobby Pulido — distances himself from the national Democratic Party brand and emphasizes the economy: 'This is not New York and not Los Angeles... people want to hear about the economy.' Polls confirm that the economy and the cost of living are voters' top priorities. At an avocado festival, a couple, Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar, blamed the president for rising prices.
Republicans on the Defensive
Among Republican activists there is a sense that, weeks before the November 3 election, they are retreating. Volunteer Alexis Uscanga calls the midterms 'purely a turnout game.' The Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th District, Tano Tijerina, acknowledged that 'the national political headwind is real,' although he credited Trump with 'breaking barriers.' If the polls are right, even a modest shift toward the Democrats could change the picture not only in Texas: Democrats could, for the first time in more than 30 years, contend for a seat in the state Senate.
Father Roy Snipes is known locally as the Cowboy Priest - he resisted plans to seize chapel land to build Trump's border wall
Image source, Getty Images Donald Trump campaigning in Texas earlier this month - the close Senate race is being hotly contested
Mario Guerrero voted for Trump three times in a row - but is planning to vote Democrat in November
