The key facts

  • Exceeding 1.5 °C is deemed inevitable; current policies lead to 2.8 °C, fulfilling pledges to 2.6 °C, and with net-zero targets to 2.1 °C.
  • To return to 1.5 °C by 2100, emissions cuts of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 are needed, plus removal of hundreds of gigatonnes of CO2.
  • US emissions in 2025 rose by 133 megatonnes of CO2-equivalent — more than any other country; China and Indonesia also saw increases, while India, Russia and the EU saw declines.

Exceeding 1.5 °C declared inevitable

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has published its annual Emissions Gap Report 2026, according to which exceeding the target warming threshold of 1.5 °C has become 'inevitable' due to decades of insufficient measures to cut fossil fuel emissions. The chance of staying within 1.5 °C, the report notes, has been 'missed'. The world has already warmed by roughly 1.4 °C compared with the pre-industrial era, and crossing the 1.5 °C mark is expected within the coming years. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: 'The world can no longer avoid breaching the 1.5-degree threshold, and its consequences are already proving devastating,' listing 'deadly floods, scorching heatwaves, uncontrollable wildfires, human casualties, battered economies, growing inequality.' At the same time he stressed: 'Overshooting is not surrender. We can still make it as small and as short as possible — and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.'

Projections: 2.6–2.8 °C under different scenarios

If countries continue their current climate policies, warming by the end of the century will reach an average of 2.8 °C above pre-industrial levels. Even with full implementation of all new climate pledges, warming will be 2.6 °C. According to UNEP, adding net-zero targets to national pledges would limit warming to only 2.1 °C. Both main scenarios mean failure to meet the Paris Agreement goals of holding warming well below 2 °C. 167 countries submitted climate plans covering 83% of global greenhouse gas emissions, but their pledges will lead to only a 5–8% cut in emissions by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, whereas a pathway back to 1.5 °C requires 18%, 45% and 69% by 2030, 2035 and 2040 respectively relative to 2025 levels.

Minimal overshoot scenario

UNEP describes a scenario with a 50% probability of returning warming to 1.5 °C by 2100: the peak must be limited to 1.7–1.8 °C around mid-century (about 2050), after which large-scale CO2 removal from the atmosphere will be required. Depending on the report's figures, this means 320 gigatonnes (per Anadolu) or 330 billion metric tonnes (per Deutsche Welle) of carbon dioxide that must be removed and permanently stored in the ground; recent studies question the feasibility and cost of such technologies. In this scenario, coal power generation must be cut by at least 75% by 2035 relative to 2025 and essentially phased out by 2040, while methane emissions must fall by at least 25% by 2035 and 40% by 2040. AFP notes that the scenario implies immediate emissions cuts of 6% annually until 2035, far from current projections. UNEP warns that every five years of delay adds about 0.1 °C to peak warming, and without urgent action keeping the peak below 1.7–1.8 °C 'will quickly become impossible'.

Rising emissions and the role of the US

Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 remained roughly at the record 2024 level — the difference between the years is too small to speak of a turning point. Emissions from burning coal, oil and gas rose slightly. Among the six largest emitters, preliminary 2025 data show increases in the US, Indonesia and China and decreases in India, Russia and the EU. The US increase — 133 megatonnes of CO2-equivalent — 'significantly exceeded' that of any other country, driven by rising electricity demand (including that linked to the expansion of AI data centres) and a return of coal generation. The second-largest increase was recorded in Turkey, which is hosting the COP31 summit in Antalya from 9 to 20 November. Report co-author Anne Olhoff explained that the forecast is worse than last year's because of the US official withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and an upward revision of historical emissions. President Donald Trump has called climate change a hoax, rolled back clean energy policies and expanded fossil fuel production. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said that no country, including the US, is protected from the consequences. The G20 countries account for about three-quarters of global emissions.

Risks of overshoot and examples of impacts

Scientists warn that even a temporary overshoot of 1.5 °C raises the risk of irreversible 'tipping points': the death of coral reefs, long-term retreat of ice sheets, the transformation of the Amazon into savanna, and thawing permafrost. These changes could trigger a chain reaction with additional emissions and accelerating warming. This summer alone, more than 32,000 heat-related deaths were registered in Europe, and about 1,500 people died in floods in Nepal and Tibet after a glacier collapse for which, as Deutsche Welle notes, climate change prepared the ground. It is also stressed that 1.5 °C is not a magic number: every fraction of a degree increases the risks.

Climate policy works, but the pace is insufficient

The report, based on more than 200 studies, shows that climate measures are effective: carbon pricing schemes in China cut emissions by about 11%, and the EU emissions trading system by 8% relative to a counterfactual scenario. Global renewable power capacity is growing three times faster than projected, solar seven times faster; in 2024, more than 90% of renewable energy projects were cheaper than fossil alternatives. Coal consumption will likely peak and begin declining before the end of the decade. 'The bottom line is simple — governments need to move as quickly as possible to policies that cut fossil fuel use,' said Bill Hare, head of Climate Analytics. Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, called the situation 'a historic failure of political leadership': 'The consequences will be measured in lost lives, not just degrees of warming.' A number of vulnerable developing countries accuse major emitters of abandoning the Paris Agreement goals; a sharp debate over the 1.5 °C target is expected at COP31 in November. Andersen urged states to urgently take measures for 'rapid, deep and sustained' emissions cuts.