The key facts

  • WMO: sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific could rise 3.8°C above the norm in November–January
  • The El Niño peak is expected at the end of 2026, with consequences lasting longer
  • The UN allocated $50 million for the 11 most vulnerable countries, including Chad, Ethiopia and Somalia

UN warning about an unprecedented El Niño

The current El Niño event may reach a strength not seen in modern meteorological records. This warning was issued on Tuesday, October 21, 2026, by UN representatives in Geneva, who called on governments to act now to limit the damage. Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), told journalists that the event could be 'literally beyond the monitoring charts we have used for the past four decades.'

Temperature forecast and timing of the peak

According to the latest WMO global seasonal climate outlook, sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific, where the phenomenon originates, could rise 3.8°C above the average level between November and January. This is significantly higher than typical El Niño values. Saulo noted that the peak of the phenomenon will occur at the end of 2026, but its consequences will be felt long after that and will affect weather patterns around the world. The WMO expects the event to raise temperatures across much of the planet, adding to warming caused by human factors.

Call for early action and funding

Saulo spoke alongside Tom Fletcher, UN Deputy Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs. Together they called for urgent and coordinated anticipatory action. Fletcher described the coming El Niño as a 'battering ram' of extreme heat, drought and floods that will bring 'massive humanitarian consequences.' According to him, the damage will not be limited to countries in the direct path of the phenomenon: it will cause economic shocks for the global economy and intensify conflicts, displacement and migration. He warned that the humanitarian system alone cannot cope with a threat of this scale, and urged governments, development banks and international financial institutions to allocate funds 'before damage is done, not after.' 'The choice is clear: we can wait for catastrophe or invest in resilience,' Euronews quoted him as saying.

Allocated funds and background on the phenomenon

Fletcher said he had already released $50 million to support the 11 most vulnerable countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon in which surface waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become anomalously warm, altering winds, atmospheric pressure and precipitation around the world. The phenomenon usually recurs every two to seven years and lasts from nine to 12 months, alternating with the colder La Niña phase and neutral periods in between.