The key facts
- The probability of keeping the rate at 14% at the October 23 meeting is estimated at about 80% (Pavel Anisimov, Life.ru)
- Kirill Kuchinsky put the probability of a rate hike at 5–10%
- From October 7 to November 6 the Finance Ministry will spend 279.4 billion rubles on buying currency and gold — about 12.7 billion per day versus 2.5 billion in September
Rate expectations for October 23
Pavel Anisimov, director of a financial company, told Life.ru that in its July forecast the Bank of Russia assumed an average rate from July 27 to the end of 2026 in the range of 13.7–14%. Keeping 14% until the end of the year corresponds to the upper bound of the forecast, so the most natural decision at the October 23 meeting looks like a pause: the expert puts its probability at close to 80%, a step down to 13.75% at about 20%, and a hike is unlikely. Earlier, candidate of economic sciences Kirill Kuchinsky also said the rate would most likely remain at 14%, and he put the probability of an increase at 5–10%. In his view, a rate cut would be beneficial for business, but rising inflationary pressure, linked in part to more expensive fuel and higher utility tariffs, prevents monetary policy easing.
Household inflation expectations
According to data cited by Anisimov, in September citizens expected prices to rise by 14.2% over the next 12 months versus 13.7% in August, and assessed observed inflation at 15.1% against the official 6.35%. The expert links this gap to perceptions of gasoline prices and frequent purchases: against this backdrop, a rate cut would confirm buyers' fears. At the same time, the share of those preferring to save spare money rose to 52.9%, which, in the financier's opinion, shows the high rate is working. He also recalled that in the autumn of 2025 Elvira Nabiullina warned of a temporary acceleration of prices in early 2026 after the VAT increase from 20% to 22%, and the January figures confirmed this. In September, the Bank of Russia refrained from hints about the next step, leaving the Board of Directors freedom of decision.
Finance Ministry currency purchases and the ruble rate
From October 7 to November 6, the Finance Ministry will direct 279.4 billion rubles to buying currency and gold — about 12.7 billion per day versus 2.5 billion in September. The reason is rising oil prices: Urals crude averaged $92.08 per barrel in September versus $67.11 in August. Despite the fivefold increase in purchases, the ruble strengthened: the official yuan rate fell from 12.80 rubles on October 7 to 12.50 by October 14. If the rate stays at 14%, the yuan, in Anisimov's estimate, will remain within 12.3–12.8 rubles until the end of October. At a rate of 13.75%, importers and households could buy currency more actively, but with the average maximum deposit rate at the largest banks at 13.06%, ruble savings would keep a yield above price growth, and the weakening would be limited to 10–20 kopecks per yuan.
A look at 2027
The CBR's July forecast assumes an average rate in 2027 in the range of 10.5–12.5%. In Anisimov's opinion, the path to these levels runs through inflation expectations: inflation first becomes entrenched in people's perceptions and only then in price tags, and it recedes in the reverse order. The ruble exchange rate in this story serves as a mirror of trust, and as long as it calmly withstands the state's fivefold increase in currency purchases, trust in the chosen course looks solid, the financier concluded.
