The key facts

  • Winter in Moscow is expected to be 1.5–2.5 °C warmer than the climate norm
  • Forecast: one of the warmest winters in 250 years of observations
  • 20–25% more snow than usual is expected to fall

Climatologist's Forecast

The upcoming winter in Moscow may turn out to be 1.5–2.5 degrees warmer than the climate norm. This forecast was voiced by climatologist, RAS Academician Vladimir Klimenko, in a conversation with aif.ru. According to him, in December the average monthly temperature may range from −1 to −2 degrees: around zero is expected during the day, with a slight frost at night. The climatologist noted that this winter will likely rank among the top ten, and possibly even the top five, warmest over the last two and a half centuries of observations.

Context of Past Winters

The impression that the past winter was unusually harsh, in Klimenko's opinion, is linked to the fact that it was preceded by a decade of predominantly warm winters. At the same time, the temperature of the past winter corresponded to the climate norm. For comparison: the winter of 2019–2020 was about six degrees warmer than the norm and became the record warmest in 250 years of observations.

Climate Norm and Precipitation

The climatologist explained that the climate norm is the averaged indicators for the period from 1991 to 2020. For Moscow, the average December temperature is about −4.4 degrees, January −6.3, and February −5.9. Despite the warm forecast, according to Klimenko's estimate, 20–25% more snow than usual will fall. In December, precipitation may alternate with rain, while in January and February rare but intense snowfalls and blizzards are likely. Earlier, residents of Central Russia were promised a 'hysterical' winter.