The key facts

  • Q4 forecast: $0.50–1.50 per share, below expectations; for the year — no more than $7.22 versus $9–11 in July.
  • Average fuel price in Q4 is expected at $4.80 per gallon versus $3.90 in Q3 — a rise of about 23%.
  • Q3 revenue was $17.88 billion (+17.4%), net profit was $1.03 billion (+8.5%).

Forecast cut amid expensive fuel

United Airlines on Tuesday, October 20, lowered its 2026 profit forecast: rising jet fuel prices are weighing on profitability, although passengers continue to book tickets despite more expensive flights. For the fourth quarter, the company forecasts adjusted profit of 50 cents to $1.50 per share — below market expectations. This guidance implies that adjusted profit for the full year will be no more than $7.22 per share, whereas in July the company had expected $9–11.

Fuel rose 23% in a quarter

The airline expects the average fuel price in the fourth quarter to reach $4.80 per gallon versus $3.90 in the third quarter — an increase of about 23%. According to the publication, rising fuel costs added billions of dollars in expenses for airlines this year, weighing on profitability and leading to higher ticket prices while travel demand remains resilient.

Third-quarter results

For the third quarter, United reported adjusted profit of $2.54 per share — slightly below expectations. Revenue rose 17.4% year over year to $17.88 billion for the three months ended September 30, falling just short of the $17.9 billion forecast. Net profit increased 8.5% to $1.03 billion, or $3.14 per share, versus $949 million, or $2.90 per share, a year earlier.

Demand is growing, but costs outweigh

Passenger demand continued to grow: the number of travelers increased by more than 2% year over year. Passenger revenue per available seat mile grew 14.5% on domestic routes and 17.4% on international ones, indicating rising fares as a revenue driver. As the publication notes, the results show that strong bookings and higher ticket prices failed to fully offset rising fuel costs and their impact on profit forecasts.