The key facts

  • UT poll: Talarico 50% vs Paxton's 47% (within the margin of error); UMass Lowell — a tie.
  • Trump held a rally in San Antonio in support of Paxton, warning of the risk to the Republican Senate majority.
  • UnidosUS poll: one in five Latino voters in Texas who voted for Trump in 2024 would not do so again.

A Rare Chance for Democrats in Texas

After more than three decades of Republican dominance, Texas Democrats see a rare opportunity in the November 3 midterm elections, AFP reports. No Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994, and Trump carried Texas in 2024 by a margin of nearly 14 percentage points. However, a U.S. Senate seat and the governorship are at stake, and recent polls show Republicans facing an unusually competitive fight amid voter discontent over immigration raids and the cost of living.

Senate Race: Talarico vs Paxton

The leader of the Democratic campaign has been 37-year-old James Talarico — a former teacher and state legislator who combines Christian faith, economic populism and calls for political unity. A University of Texas poll this week showed him leading Republican Ken Paxton — the state attorney general and Trump ally — 50% to 47%, within the margin of error. A separate UMass Lowell poll recorded a tie. Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, seeks to attract independents and Republicans disillusioned with Trump. «I will always put Texas above any political party,» he said.

Trump Campaigns for Paxton

Trump is actively supporting Paxton, warning at a recent rally in San Antonio that losing the seat could jeopardize the narrow Republican majority in the Senate. «This is a killer in Congress because we have a very small majority. We cannot allow that,» he said, calling Talarico by the nickname «Talafreako» and accusing Democrats of wanting to open the borders. Trump backed Paxton against incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a hard-fought primary, despite warnings that the attorney's history of scandals could endanger the seat.

Scandals Surrounding Paxton

Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives in 2023 on charges of corruption and abuse of power, but was later acquitted by the state Senate. In an unusual twist, Dan Cogdell, one of Paxton's attorneys during the trial, now supports Talarico. The Wall Street Journal reported that Paxton spent New Year's in Dubai with two American businessmen accused of alleged healthcare fraud; both pleaded not guilty. Nevertheless, Paxton retains the support of Trump-aligned conservatives. «Honestly, I don't think he's the best representation, but he's the best of what they're offering us,» 58-year-old Mark Aponte told AFP at a rally in San Antonio, calling Paxton the best available choice to protect public safety and Christian rights.

Disillusionment Among Latino Voters

Trump's 2024 victory in Texas relied heavily on gains among Latino voters, especially along the southern border with Mexico, but some of them are reconsidering their support. Benny Melendez, a construction company owner and son of immigrants, voted for Trump but says the immigration crisis ruined his business: «My work, profits and workforce have been cut in half,» he told AFP, adding that he is deeply troubled by the fear and family separations caused by immigration enforcement. Cattle industry groups in Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma warned that the raids disrupt agricultural operations, scare off legally hired workers and threaten rising beef prices. A May poll by the Latino advocacy group UnidosUS found that one in five Texas Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 would not do so again.

The Governor's Race

Broader discontent gives Democrats hope in the governor's race as well, where three-term Republican Greg Abbott faces unexpectedly close competition from state legislator Gina Hinojosa, who has focused her campaign on the cost of living. For Melendez, disillusionment with Trump was reason enough to switch sides: «I didn't vote for Trump because I liked him. I voted for Trump to punish Biden. And I'll vote for a Democrat for the same reason: to punish Trump,» he told AFP.