The key facts

  • China's GDP in Q3: +4.5% y/y and +1.2% q/q, above expectations; 4.6% over nine months
  • ABN AMRO keeps its 2026 forecast at 4.6%, matching the lower bound of Beijing's 4.5–5% target
  • Growth relies on AI and technology exports; domestic demand remains weak, no large-scale stimulus expected

Growth Beat Expectations

China's economy in the third quarter of 2026 grew 1.2% compared with the previous quarter and 4.5% year-on-year, beating analysts' expectations. In the first quarter, growth was 5%, and in the second quarter 4.3%. Thus, growth over the first nine months reached 4.6%, which corresponds to Beijing's target range for this year — 4.5–5%. As Anadolu notes, better-than-expected figures lowered expectations of large-scale stimulus measures and strengthened confidence in achieving the annual growth target.

Context of Previous Years

Last year, China's GDP grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter, and the economy expanded 5% for the year as a whole. This prompted the authorities to revise the target: instead of 5%, which had been maintained for the previous three years, a range of 4.5–5% was set.

ABN AMRO Estimates

ABN AMRO senior economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen told Anadolu that the bank maintains its growth forecast at 4.6% this year and 4.5% next year. According to him, this means annual GDP growth will end up at the lower bound of Beijing's target range (4.5–5.0%).

Exports and Technology as Drivers

Van Dijkhuizen linked China's economic growth to strong exports, underpinned by the artificial intelligence and technology sector. Export strength, in his assessment, offset the negative impact of the Middle East conflict and continued weak domestic demand. “Our forecasts are partly based on the authorities adding targeted support while refraining from large-scale macro stimulus,” he noted.

Fresh Data on Industry and Consumption

The economist added that PMI data pointed to a slight recovery in growth during the summer months. Against the backdrop of strong export and import growth in September, industrial production accelerated to 5.5% year-on-year (consensus 5.5%, August 5.2%) and 0.6% from the previous month (August 0.5%). Retail sales growth came in stronger than expected: 1.1% y/y (consensus 0.5%, August 0.4%) and 0.4% m/m (August minus 0.2%).