The key facts

  • The Irish presidency's compromise (a €141 billion cut) was largely rejected at the summit; Costa will present a new proposal and convene a special summit on 26 November.
  • Kristersson and Meloni allow for the December 2026 deadline to be missed; Christodoulides is one of the few still insisting on a deal by year-end.
  • Officials fear that without a deal by the end of 2026, talks could slip to autumn 2027 due to elections in France, Italy, Poland and other countries.

The summit ended without a result

At the close of the summit in Brussels, EU leaders refused to move on the question of the bloc's next long-term budget and openly doubted whether a deal could be reached by the end of the year. Previously, capitals had aimed to reach a final agreement on the seven-year multiannual financial framework (MFF) by December 2026, but more and more governments are asking whether that is really necessary. "We will not reach an agreement this month. Not next month either. I don't even know if it's possible to agree by the end of the year," said Sweden's caretaker Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, adding: "I think we are in no hurry."

Presidency compromise rejected, Costa takes over the talks

The Irish presidency's compromise proposal to cut the overall budget volume by €141 billion was largely rejected. Negotiations will now be taken over by European Council President António Costa, who has repeated for months that leaders must agree the budget unanimously by December. He has warned that if talks slip into 2027, there will be no time left to complete the complex legislative work needed to launch the budget by 1 January 2028. Costa will present a new negotiating proposal in a few weeks and has called a special summit for 26 November. According to Euronews, his proposal is expected to preserve low national contributions, a new package of EU-wide taxes to fund the budget, and sufficient flexibility for unforeseen expenditure — an item that the Irish version significantly trimmed.

The deadline is watered down in the final wording

Even before the summit, the draft joint conclusions had been softened on the deadline: instead of the wording about "the aim of reaching a final agreement by the end of the year," the final text says that "an agreement by the end of 2026 would allow legislative acts to be adopted in 2027, which is necessary for EU funding to reach recipients without interruption in January 2028."

Leaders do not feel bound by deadlines

Several leaders said before the summit that they do not consider themselves bound by calendar deadlines, since it would be extremely difficult to explain to voters that they accepted a bad deal for the sake of an artificial deadline. "A date cannot become more important than the substance," said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Wednesday in the Senate. "We will not sign an agreement that is unfavourable to us just to meet a deadline. We will sign an agreement only when it is the right one for Italy." Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten remarked: "In the end, we need a good multiannual financial framework. Of course, everyone wants speed, but it is more important to have a good deal than a bad one."

Two camps and no zone of compromise

There is no shared view of what a "good deal" looks like: every government wants to get the maximum from the EU budget while paying as little as possible. The main line of confrontation runs between the "frugals" — a coalition of six net contributor countries led by Germany demanding deep cuts to the overall volume — and the "Friends of Cohesion," a group of 17 southern and eastern countries defending traditional funding programmes for the poorest regions. The camps are not homogeneous: among the Friends of Cohesion, Spain and Italy are interested in agricultural funds, while the Baltic states want to increase defence spending due to their proximity to Russia. Among the frugals, Germany and Sweden are considered the most radical, while Finland is interested in agricultural subsidies. France, the bloc's second-largest economy, has not yet made up its mind, torn between European ambitions and a growing budget deficit; Belgium and Luxembourg waver between the factions. In Euronews' assessment, red lines have become so entrenched and the space for compromise so narrow that a "landing zone" currently looks like a mirage. In Brussels circles, sensitive deals are struck only under intense time pressure, so abandoning the link to deadlines may be a negotiating tactic.

Alarm over the 2027 elections

For EU officials, a potential delay in programme funding causes even less alarm than the string of 2027 elections in France, Italy, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Slovakia and Greece. Some fear that if a deal is not reached by the end of this year, talks could slip to autumn 2027. Paris is a particular concern: far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is the favourite in the presidential race, and she has pledged to cap France's contribution at €5 billion a year, versus the current roughly €8 billion. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides noted that the elections in Spain on 29 November and in Sweden in September "will likely create some problems." He repeated the need to reach an agreement by the end of the year and, according to Euronews, is one of the few EU leaders who still says so.