Ballon d'Or on Monday in London: favourite Kane, contenders Yamal and Mbappé

An open race ahead of the London ceremony

On Monday, London will host the 70th Ballon d'Or ceremony, established by France Football magazine. According to AFP, the favourite in the wide-open race is England captain Harry Kane, followed by Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé. England is hosting the ceremony for the first time — in honour of the first winner, Stanley Matthews — and, as AFP notes, it would be fitting if, 25 years later, an Englishman could win it again for the first time since.

Kane's arguments and his doubts

The 33-year-old Bayern striker scored 73 goals in 65 matches for club and country last season, leading the German club to a league and cup double and England to the World Cup semi-finals. 'I would love to achieve something like that. It would be a huge milestone in my career,' Kane said. However, as AFP emphasises, exits in the Champions League and World Cup semi-finals leave the outcome uncertain. 'I think my wife would like to know in advance, and my family… it's a big stress for everyone,' he added, noting that the organisers do not announce the winner in advance so that the stars attend the ceremony and more people watch the broadcast.

Yamal and Mbappé: different arguments

The 19-year-old Yamal finished behind Paris Saint-Germain's Ousmane Dembélé last year. A hamstring injury ended his club season early, and in AFP's assessment he was not the main star of Spain's World Cup triumph, which was built on collective play: the best player and young player awards of the tournament went to his Barcelona teammates Rodri and Pau Cubarsí. Still, Yamal remains confident: 'For me, Mbappé and I are the two best players in the world… this year I earned the award by winning.' Mbappé, by contrast, can boast personal records without medals: the 27-year-old Real Madrid and France forward finished as top scorer of La Liga, the Champions League and the World Cup without winning any of those trophies. His 10 goals at the World Cup took the competition record to 22. 'Who do I vote for? Myself,' he declared.

How the voting works and who leads among the women

One football journalist from each of the top 100 countries in the FIFA ranking is invited to vote: each allocates points from 15 down to one to players from a 30-name shortlist. The award goes to the player with the highest total. There is no direct cash prize, but according to AFP, victory brings substantial bonuses from clubs and commercial partners and raises a player's marketing value. In the women's category, the favourite is Alexia Putellas, winner in 2021 and 2022: Aitana Bonmatí's three-year reign, AFP predicts, will end after an injury-hit season. Putellas won the Champions League with Barcelona before moving to London City Lionesses; her main rival is her former club teammate, the Pole Ewa Pajor, who scored 11 goals in Barça's latest Champions League-winning campaign.

Why it matters

The outcome of the race will determine not only the status of the world's best footballer but also financial consequences: according to AFP, victory means bonuses from clubs and sponsors and an increase in a player's market value, which directly affects Bayern, Barcelona and Real Madrid. For fans, the practical point is that the winner will only be revealed on Monday evening — the organisers deliberately keep the name secret to ensure the presence of all the main contenders at the ceremony.