The key facts

  • The election takes place on 25 October, with a possible runoff on 1 November; the frontrunners are Yotova and Gyurov
  • According to Alpha Research polls, Yotova leads Gyurov by roughly 12 percentage points, but the gap is narrowing
  • Drone attacks in the Black Sea have intensified criticism of the authorities' 'ambiguous' stance and boosted turnout

Election context

Six months after the parliamentary elections, Bulgaria elects its president on 25 October; a runoff is possible on 1 November. The post is largely ceremonial, but the election will be a test for the government of former president Rumen Radev, whose party won an unprecedented victory in April — the first such majority in almost three decades. Of the 27 candidates, the race has come down to a duel between incumbent president Iliana Yotova, who twice served as vice president under Radev and is backed by the prime minister, and former interim prime minister Andrey Gyurov, who is supported by the opposition parties.

Presidential powers and the concentration of power

Under the constitution, the president embodies national unity, represents the country internationally, is commander-in-chief, appoints members of the Supreme Judicial Council and regulatory bodies, including caretaker governments, and can veto legislation. Political scientist at the New Bulgarian University Hristo Panchugov noted that for the first time in Bulgaria's modern democratic history there is an absolutely undisputed majority of one party amid a collapsing opposition; in his view, the campaign should have focused more on whether the president can serve as a counterweight. In an interview with DW, Gyurov spoke of 'a concentration of power that always carries signs of sliding toward autocracy' and added that 'the president must be able to say no.' Yotova declined an interview with DW.

The war in Ukraine and drone attacks

The campaign was initially sluggish — small rallies, no televised debates, personal attacks. However, after the drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea, the candidates' differences over support for Ukraine came to the fore. Bulgaria initially refused to join the 'coalition of the willing' and NATO's counter-drone initiative, but changed its position on the latter after the attacks. Yotova promotes the idea of a 'coalition of peace,' saying at a rally: 'There are many supporters of war in our country; I am not one of them,' and promised that 'not a single Bulgarian soldier will go to Ukraine,' although this was not a subject of public debate, and a 2025 parliamentary declaration already confirmed the non-participation of Bulgarian troops in combat operations.

The authorities' response and protests

Many in Europe, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, blamed the attacks on Russia, but Bulgarian leaders drew no definitive conclusions, causing disappointment in the country. After the first attack, Yotova convened the Consultative Council on National Security, whose declaration did not name the source of the threat. After the second, Prime Minister Radev said: 'We do not have solid, clear evidence to accuse any specific party; however, logic suggests that the outcome works to Russia's benefit,' and summoned the Russian ambassador for talks. Protests against the 'ambiguous' foreign policy took place in Sofia; participant Vlada Tsenova called the position of the president and prime minister 'completely spineless' and hopes this will become a catalyst ahead of the election.

Poll dynamics and possible outcomes

According to sociologist Boryana Dimitrova (Alpha Research), support for Yotova has declined somewhat due to the ambiguity of her positions, but she confidently leads in the first round with a lead of about 12 percentage points over Gyurov; expected turnout has risen. Panchugov notes that Gyurov's campaign was weakened by the late announcement of his candidacy and a lack of 'passion.' The candidate of the pro-Russian nationalist party Vazrazhdane (Revival) is in third place, and his supporters will most likely back Yotova in the runoff. The outcome may be determined by the GERB and DPS parties, which did not field candidates: according to Alpha Research, half of GERB supporters do not intend to vote in the first round, while the rest will likely support Gyurov, since the party has historically been against the Bulgarian Socialist Party. Dimitrova summed up: 'These elections can be seen as the first test of trust in the party that recently won the elections. In peaceful times, attention is drawn to the center; in turbulent times, candidates with a clearer position gain greater visibility, regardless of its direction.'