The key facts
- Bulgaria's presidential election will take place on 25 October, with a possible runoff on 1 November; the main candidates are Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov.
- Drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea have shifted the campaign's focus to security and support for Ukraine.
- According to Alpha Research polls, Yotova retains her lead with a margin of about 12 percentage points, but the gap is narrowing.
Election context
Six months after the parliamentary elections, Bulgaria is choosing a new president. The vote is scheduled for 25 October, with a possible runoff on 1 November. Although the post of president in the country is largely ceremonial, the election will be a test for the government of former president Rumen Radev, whose party won a convincing victory in April, securing the first outright majority in parliament in nearly three decades. Of the 27 candidates, the contest has come down to a duel between incumbent president Iliana Yotova, who twice served as vice president under Radev and is backed by the prime minister, and former caretaker prime minister Andrey Gyurov, who is supported by the opposition parties.
Presidential powers and concentration of power
Under Bulgaria's constitution, the president embodies national unity, represents the country at the international level, is commander-in-chief of the armed forces, appoints members of the Supreme Judicial Council and various regulatory bodies, including caretaker governments, and holds veto power over legislation. Political scientist at New Bulgarian University Hristo Panchugov believes that, despite formally limited powers, the post is especially significant in the current situation: for the first time in Bulgaria's modern democratic history, an outright majority is held by a single party facing a disintegrating opposition. In his view, the campaign would have paid more attention to the question of whether the president can serve as a counterweight. Gyurov told DW that the country is seeing a concentration of power bearing the 'imprint of a slide toward autocracy' and that 'the president must be able to say no.' Yotova declined DW's request for an interview.
The war in Ukraine and drone attacks
The campaign initially proceeded in the format of small rallies, without televised debates and with numerous personal jabs between the candidates. However, in recent weeks, after drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea, the candidates' differences over support for Ukraine have come to the fore. Bulgaria's government initially declined invitations to join the 'coalition of the willing' and NATO's counter-drone initiative, but changed its position on the latter after the attacks. Yotova advocates creating a 'coalition of peace,' within which Bulgaria would have a stronger diplomatic voice in ending Russia's war in Ukraine. At a campaign rally she said: 'There are many warmongers in our country; I am not one of them,' adding that as long as she is president, not a single Bulgarian soldier will be sent to Ukraine. She reassured voters, although this was not the subject of public debate, and a 2025 parliamentary declaration confirmed that Bulgaria's armed forces will not take part in combat operations.
The authorities' response to the attacks and protests
Boryana Dimitrova from the research agency Alpha Research noted that the drone strikes in the Black Sea have made the abstract geopolitical situation part of Bulgarians' everyday lives. Many in Europe, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, have blamed Russia for the attacks, but the fact that Bulgarian leaders did not clearly point to the perpetrator has caused disappointment in the country. After the first attack, Yotova convened the Consultative Council on National Security, whose declaration did not name the source of the threat. After the second attack, Prime Minister Radev said: 'We have no firm, clear evidence to accuse any specific party; however, logic suggests that the outcome works to Russia's benefit,' after which he summoned the Russian ambassador for a conversation. Protests took place in Sofia against what participants saw as the government's ambiguous foreign policy. One of the protesters, Vlada Tsenova, told DW that the drone attacks and the 'completely spineless position' of the president and prime minister were the last straw and should serve as a catalyst on the eve of the election.
Poll dynamics and possible scenarios
According to Alpha Research, support for Yotova has declined somewhat due to the ambiguity of a number of her positions, although this does not threaten her first place in the first round: she leads Gyurov by about 12 percentage points, but the gap has narrowed and expected turnout has risen. Panchugov notes that Gyurov's campaign has been weakened by hesitation in announcing his candidacy, a lack of 'passion,' and few comments on current topics before entering the race. Supporters of the third-place candidate from the pro-Russian nationalist party Vazrazhdane (Revival) will most likely back Yotova in the runoff. The outcome may be decided by the GERB and DPS parties, which did not field a candidate, although in April they attracted the support of more than 660,000 voters. According to Alpha Research, half of GERB supporters do not intend to vote in the first round; most of the rest are expected to back Gyurov, since the party has historically opposed the Bulgarian Socialist Party, Yotova's political home. At the same time, Gyurov's campaign and the nationalist parties are showing growing mobilization — the latter thanks to voters disillusioned with the government's cautious response to the drone attacks. Dimitrova called the election 'the first test of trust' for the recently victorious party and noted that in turbulent times, candidates with a clearer position gain greater visibility, regardless of its direction.
