US estimates Iran's missile arsenal at 1,500–2,500 after the strikes

US intelligence: Iran's missile arsenal has survived

Iran, despite months of American and Israeli strikes on its military infrastructure, retains, according to US intelligence estimates, between 1,500 and 2,500 ballistic missiles, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing US intelligence assessments and officials. These figures contradict statements by US President Donald Trump that Tehran's military capability has been largely destroyed.

Low confidence in the estimate and differing figures

According to officials, the estimate carries low confidence: it is difficult to determine how many missiles are ready for launch and how many remain in storage. The arsenal's replenishment is proceeding more slowly than before the war. Iran also possesses a significant number of drones and missiles with sufficient range to strike targets across the region. Israeli military officials estimate Iran's arsenal at more than 1,500 ballistic missiles, although regional assessments differ. Simone Ledeen, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, noted that even the lower estimate means the restoration of more than half of the pre-war arsenal.

The parties' positions

According to the newspaper, Iranian missile and drone attacks continued to expose vulnerabilities in US military facilities, radars, and early warning systems in the Middle East. For now, Washington prefers to pressure Tehran through sanctions and a blockade rather than launch a new major military operation. US allies in the Persian Gulf warn against resuming hostilities because of the risk of Iranian retaliatory strikes, while Israel continues to push for further military action.