The key facts

  • Emerging economies: 3.7% growth in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 and 2028
  • Global growth: 3% in 2026, 3.2% in 2027 and 2028 — the slowest pace since 2020
  • Türkiye: 2.5% in 2026, 3% in 2027, 3.4% in 2028

Forecast: emerging economies accelerate while the global economy slows

In its Global Economic Outlook forecast, the research organization The Conference Board expects emerging economies to grow 4.3% in 2027, up from 3.7% in the current year; the 2028 forecast remains at 4.3%. The global economy, according to the organization's estimate, will expand 3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 and 2028 — the slowest growth pace since 2020. Revisions to national income data in the US, India and a number of other countries supported the global growth estimates.

What supports growth and what holds it back

The report describes opposing forces: investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure supports US economic growth, while technologically advanced Asian economies benefit from the associated global demand. However, the gains are concentrated in specific countries and sectors and cannot fully offset weak consumer demand in other regions — the authors believe the global outlook will depend significantly on the scale and sustainability of AI investment. Pressures on the outlook include geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainty and high financing costs: conflicts in the Middle East raise energy, shipping and insurance costs, reinforcing inflationary pressure and keeping rates elevated. Global trade remains resilient, but the new tariff volatility remains a risk. Depending on the duration of Middle Eastern energy and trade disruptions and the strength of US AI investment, growth in 2027 could range from 3% to 3.4% versus the baseline forecast of 3.2%.

Inflation limits policy easing

Inflation in the US is expected to remain above target throughout 2027, which could limit the room for monetary policy easing. In the eurozone, inflationary pressure is building again despite weak industrial activity. Elevated rates in major advanced economies could increase corporate borrowing costs, restrain investment and consumer spending, and complicate corporate financing. The report names geopolitics, trade policy, inflation, interest rates and the trajectory of AI investment as the key growth drivers for the coming years.

Türkiye and long-term benchmarks

For Türkiye, The Conference Board forecasts growth of 2.5% in 2026, 3% in 2027 and 3.4% in 2028: as the Turkish economy accelerates, the gap with emerging market growth rates will narrow. Over the longer term, emerging economies are forecast to grow on average 3.2% per year in 2028–2032 and 3.1% in 2033–2037; the corresponding figures for Türkiye are 2.2% and 1.4%, and for the world as a whole 2.6% and 2.4%.