The key facts

  • Russia's GDP grew 1% year-on-year in Q3 2026 according to Rosstat's preliminary estimate
  • Growth was 1.3% in Q2, while Q1 saw a contraction of 0.2%
  • The Economic Development Ministry estimated growth at 0.8% for the nine months and forecasts 1.4% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028

Slowdown according to Rosstat

Russia's economy grew 1% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, according to a preliminary estimate by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). This is a slowdown compared with the second quarter, when growth was 1.3%, following a contraction of 0.2% in the first quarter of the year.

Agency forecasts and the structure of growth

The quarterly figure matched the Central Bank of Russia's forecast of 1% and turned out higher than the Economic Development Ministry's estimate of 0.6%. Growth was driven by domestic demand: freight turnover increased by 2.7%, manufacturing by 2.5%, construction by 2.0%, while retail trade and catering also grew. At the same time, agriculture contracted by 3.9%, passenger turnover fell by 3.0%, mining declined by 2.7%, and wholesale trade by 0.7%.

Nine-month estimates and forecasts

The Economic Development Ministry estimated GDP growth for January–September at 0.8%, noting that in manufacturing, growth was driven by machine building and metallurgy. The ministry added that growth for the whole of 2026 may slightly exceed its official forecast of 0.6%, and forecasts expansion of 1.4% in 2027 and 1.9% in 2028 respectively.