The key facts
- The first direct Russia-Ukraine talks since February are taking place in Abu Dhabi with the participation of the US and Europe
- The first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since February are taking place in Abu Dhabi with the participation of the US and Europe
- The parties differ on territories and security guarantees; experts call the talks part of a long process
- Against the backdrop of the talks, strikes on Ukraine's energy sector and Russia's oil refining continue
- Against the backdrop of the talks, strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and Russia's oil refining continue
Talks in Abu Dhabi
Russia and Ukraine are beginning their first direct peace talks since February — against the backdrop of a war approaching its fifth year, with neither side achieving a decisive breakthrough on the front. The talks, arranged with US mediation, begin on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi, The National reports. They involve Russian and Ukrainian officials, American representatives, as well as European figures, including Britain's National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, who previously took part in the Northern Ireland peace settlement, and two senior EU envoys.
The parties' positions and context
Donald Trump's chief negotiator, Jared Kushner, wrote on X that the president is 'determined to end this terrible war' and that the parties are seeking a solution capable of ensuring a 'sovereign, secure and prosperous Ukraine' within a more stable European security environment. According to the publication, leaked reports indicate Russian losses of more than 440,000 killed since 2022. At the same time, neither side is ready to abandon its central demands: for Volodymyr Zelensky the priority is NATO Article 5-style security guarantees, while for Putin the question is which Ukrainian territory he can obtain before the war ends.
The military situation against the backdrop of dialogue
The talks are preceded by an intensification of strikes. Russia is carrying out a campaign of bombing Ukrainian energy facilities ahead of winter: on the night of Saturday, according to the publication, only 4 of 36 ballistic missiles were intercepted, and of the roughly 200 kamikaze drones Moscow launches daily, many go unintercepted — Kyiv is running out of interceptors, mostly supplied by the US, whose stockpiles have dwindled since the war with Iran. Ukraine responds with strikes on Russian oil refining — an important source of state revenue — using weapons largely developed domestically.
Experts' expectations
Experts do not expect a quick result. Alexander Lord, head of Europe at the intelligence company Sibylline, sees the meeting as part of a 'slowly ripening peace process' and believes serious talks are more likely in 2027; he noted as an encouraging sign Zelensky's acknowledgment that Russia will also demand security guarantees. His colleague Leila Gest is more sceptical: in her view, Moscow is likely paying 'lip service' with the talks while continuing the bombardments to push Kyiv toward concessions in early 2027. Bob Seely, a former Conservative MP and author of the book The New Total War, by contrast, assesses Ukraine's position as improving — Russian forces are 'retreating slightly' — and believes the outcome of the US midterm elections will affect the talks: a Democratic Congress would limit the influence of pro-Russian elements in Trump's team. Experts also point to the example of the temporary truce around the occupied town of Oleshky, in which Melania Trump was involved, as proof that limited agreements are possible.
