Peak of influenza and ARVI forecast for January–February 2027

Forecast for the 2026–2027 season

The peak incidence of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) and influenza is expected in January and February 2027, with updated influenza strains circulating predominantly. This was reported by infectious disease doctor at Invitro Andrei Pozdnyakov in a conversation with Sib.fm, as retold by Gazeta.Ru. According to him, there is no need to fear an influenza epidemic: the active spread of infections is typical for this time of year.

Which strains are expected

“The main influenza variant will most likely remain A(H3N2) — last season it accounted for about 80% of cases,” Pozdnyakov warned. This type of influenza, in his assessment, is dangerous because it is severe in certain population groups and threatens complications: the risk group includes elderly people and people with cardiovascular diseases. Influenza type B is more dangerous for children and adolescents, but usually begins closer to the end of winter. The doctor emphasized that this is a forecast, not a strict schedule: there is a risk of infection in other months as well, and the actual dynamics will depend on the predominant subtype and the effectiveness of vaccination.

The situation in Russia and what to do if symptoms appear

Head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova earlier warned about a seasonal rise in ARVI incidence in Russia. According to her data, about 5% of detected influenza types belong to A(H1N1), for which the population has not yet developed protection: this variant has not previously circulated in Russia and was not used in vaccine production in previous years. Popova urged people not to self-medicate and to see a doctor at the first signs of illness. Pozdnyakov, for his part, noted that if symptoms appear, it is important to obtain laboratory confirmation of the diagnosis: treating influenza with antiviral drugs is effective only within the first 48 hours, while with another viral illness such therapy is not needed.