Economist suggests the Russian Central Bank's key rate may remain high throughout 2027

Forecast: rate cut no earlier than spring 2027

The Bank of Russia may begin slowly lowering the key rate in March–April 2027, but the period of expensive money risks dragging on. This forecast was given to Gazeta.Ru by asset managerIrina Akhmadullina, Candidate of Economic Sciences and lecturer at the Institute of International Economic Relations. Until the end of 2026, she expects the current level of 14% to remain in place. The expert also admits a rate hike is possible, but does not consider it the base scenario.

The regulator's caution and risks

“The main risk of 2027 lies not so much in a new cycle of rate hikes as in the fact that the period of expensive money at a 14% rate may drag on until the second half of 2027. The October 23 decision confirms the regulator's cautious approach. The Central Bank kept the rate unchanged and outlined a forecast for its average level in 2027 in the range of 12.5–13.5%,” Akhmadullina noted. In her view, new economic and geopolitical shocks could trigger a tightening of policy; in addition, at the start of the year it will be necessary to assess the impact of tax and tariff changes on the sustainability of price growth.

What this means for depositors and borrowers

Akhmadullina advised depositors not to keep all their savings in short-term deposits solely in anticipation of a rate hike: even with such a decision, banks are not obliged to proportionally increase returns. For borrowers, the continuation of a tight policy means the risk of more expensive new loans, and payments on floating-rate obligations may also increase. Earlier, on October 23, the Central Bank kept the key rate at 14%which is what formed the basis for the assessments above.