The key facts
- Winter will persist for astronomical reasons but will become more unpredictable
- Extreme precipitation in November on the Russian Plain is recorded twice as often as before
- Stable winter conditions are expected only in late November — early December
Winter will become 'nervous' but will not disappear
Russians will not be left without a real winter, but the familiar frosty season will become increasingly unpredictable — with abrupt weather changes and intense snowfalls. This forecast was given by Vadim Zavodchenkov, lead specialist at the Phobos weather center, in an author's column for Vesti, which is cited by Life.ru (1). 'The character of winter will simply change; it will become ever more nervous and impulsive,' the publication quotes the meteorologist as saying.
Why winter will remain but change
According to Zavodchenkov's explanation, global warming cannot completely cancel winter: the change of seasons is determined primarily by astronomical processes. After the autumn equinox, the Northern Hemisphere begins to lose more heat than it receives from the Sun, so the air inevitably cools down. What changes is the character of the season: frosty periods will be accompanied by increasingly sharp atmospheric processes, and the usual stability will give way to weather fluctuations.
Less snow, but more powerful snowfalls
One of the most noticeable manifestations of the changes is extreme precipitation. According to the specialist's observations, in the 21st century such events are recorded on the Russian Plain in November twice as often as before. He partly attributes this to the warming of the World Ocean: more moisture evaporates from its surface, which air masses carry to the mainland. At the same time, temperature contrasts between atmospheric fronts are intensifying. As a result, the snow cover persists for less time, but individual snowfalls become more powerful — meaning that even with an overall shortening of the snow season, regions of the European part of Russia may face heavy snowfalls.
What the weather will be like in the coming days and what was warned about earlier
In the coming days, residents of the Russian Plain will face another wave of abnormal warmth: according to Zavodchenkov's forecast, stable winter conditions will begin to form only in late November — early December, when the ground surface has cooled sufficiently. The same is reported in a Vesti article stating that autumn is still leaving winter no chance on the Russian Plain (2). Earlier, Life.ru already wrote about possible 'weather swings' in the coming winter: a professor of the Russian Academy of Sciences warned that severe frosts could abruptly give way to thaws, and that the shortening of the snow season could in the long run threaten a lack of stable snow cover for the ski resorts of Krasnaya Polyana and Arkhyz (3).
