The key facts

  • Boulevard Voltaire calls Le Pen and Mélenchon leaders with recognizable positions and solid support
  • The electoral potential of the moderate contenders is estimated at 25–30%, but it is fragmented among several candidates
  • In the author's view, candidates need not only a program but also the charisma to unite voters

Opposition leaders with solid support

The French outlet Boulevard Voltaire assessed the balance of power ahead of the French presidential election. According to the author of the article, which is summarized by Gazeta.Ru, the most realistic chances among the opposition belong to Marine Le Pen, head of the parliamentary faction of the National Rally, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise: both have recognizable political positions and a solid electoral base sufficient to win the presidency.

The fragmented electorate of the moderates

Among other possible contenders, the author names Bruno Retailleau, David Lisnard, Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, Raphaël Glucksmann and François Hollande. According to Boulevard Voltaire, the combined electoral potential of these moderate politicians is about 25–30%, but if it is split among several candidates, it may not be enough to reach the second round. To change the situation, one of them, in the author's view, must become the voice of the shared values and political expectations of this part of society.

A program versus the 'embodiment' of an idea

The article emphasizes that winning an election takes more than a detailed program and a set of individual initiatives: a candidate must embody a clear political idea and possess the personal charisma capable of uniting voters. Hence the title of the piece — the author ties the question of the survival of the presidential election precisely to the 'embodiment' of a political idea by a specific figure.

Context and limitations

The assessments in the article are the author's own: they reflect the opinion of a Boulevard Voltaire columnist, not poll results or official data. Gazeta.Ru separately notes that photos of Emmanuel Macron from the beginning and the end of his presidency were previously compared online — the publication contains no information on whether the politicians listed will actually run as candidates or what their real support is according to pollsters.