The key facts

  • Nausėda believes Russia «will merely pretend to be negotiating» and does not trust Moscow
  • In his assessment, if Ukraine survives the winter, the chances of serious talks in 2027 will increase
  • In parallel, talks are being prepared in Abu Dhabi with US mediation; the Russian delegation will again be led by Vladimir Medinsky

Lithuanian president's forecast

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda suggestedthat the Russian leadership does not intend to enter into substantive peace talks until at least the spring of 2027. This was reported by The Telegraph , citing statements by the Lithuanian leader. «At present, the Russian leadership sees no need to enter into talks — at least until the spring of 2027,» Nausėda suggested.

Distrust of Moscow and betting on winter

Nausėda said he «does not trust» Moscow: in his view, Russia «will merely pretend to be negotiating» while putting forward conditions unacceptable to Ukraine. At the same time, the Lithuanian president tied the prospect of a real dialogue to how Ukraine gets through the coming months: if the country manages to survive the winter, «the chances of serious talks in 2027 will increase,» he believes. Thus, his forecast combines skepticism about Moscow's current readiness for compromise with cautious optimism over a longer horizon.

Talks in Abu Dhabi

Meanwhile, the negotiation process continues in a more modest format. On November 3 US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff saidthat Russia and Ukraine, with US mediation, will hold talks in Abu Dhabi. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmedthat the Russian delegation will take part in the meeting; the chief negotiator for Russia, according to him, will again be presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky. Earlier, the head of Ukraine's Foreign Ministry mentioned the topic of the Abu Dhabi meeting — a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky.

Context

Nausėda's statement is an assessment by one of the heads of state of an EU and NATO member, not a confirmed plan by the Russian side: The Telegraph presents his words as a supposition, and the newspaper itself notes that this is the Lithuanian president's hypothesis. Nothing has yet been reported in available publications about the content or outcomes of the meeting in Abu Dhabi.