The key facts

  • Average perceived inflation in September — 9.2%, median — 8%, both at record lows
  • Tashkent leads in perceptions (11.9%), Namangan is lowest (7.9%)
  • The share noting gasoline price increases rose from 42% to 53%, and for electricity and gas from 19% to 36%

Perceived inflation hits a new low

In September, the level of inflation perceptions in Uzbekistan fell below 10% for the first time since observations began: the average estimate of price growth over the past 12 months stood at 9.2%, down 0.9 percentage points from the August figure. This was reported by the Central Bank. The median figure dropped to 8% for the first time since June. This is consistent with the dynamics of inflation expectations: Spot previously reportedthat they reached new lows — 8.7% among the population and 9.2% among businesses.

Regions, incomes and occupations

The highest estimates of price growth were in Tashkent (11.9%), notably ahead of the Fergana (10.1%) and Syrdarya (10%) regions. The lowest figures were in Namangan (7.9%), Bukhara (8.2%), Karakalpakstan and Jizzakh (8.5% each). Among occupational groups, price increases were most strongly noted by pensioners (12.5%), tourism industry workers (10.8%) and household services workers (10.5%); the lowest were among public catering workers (8.2%), students (8.3%) and retail workers (8.6%). As before, people with higher incomes estimate price growth higher: in the group with a monthly income of 30 million soums or more — 15.9%, with 20–30 million — just over 13%, with 10–20 million — 10.8%, whereas with incomes up to 2 million — 7.7%, with 2–4 million — 8.7%.

What exactly became more expensive in citizens' eyes

As in August, respondents most often named meat and dairy products — 56%. At the same time, the shares of those noting price increases rose noticeably for gasoline (53% versus 42% a month earlier), electricity and gas (36% versus 19%), transport and public catering (24% and 22% respectively versus 13%), educational services (18% versus 10%) and rent (17% versus 11%). Construction materials (20%), medicines and medical services (19%), household services and repairs (13% — almost twice as often as a year ago) were also mentioned. Meanwhile, the share of those noting price increases for fruits and vegetables fell from 27% to 17%, and for rice from 14% to 8%; hygiene products (8%), bread and flour (9%), home appliances (9%) and confectionery (10%) were named least often.