Economist predicts the West will lose its auto industry within five years

A forecast of shifting power in the car market

Western automaking may within five years definitively lose its role as one of the key pillars of industry amid competition with China. This forecast was given to Gazeta.Ru by economist, expert at the Stolypin Institute of Growth Economics and member of the general council of Delovaya Rossiya, Oleg Nikolaev. In his words, the difficulties of German manufacturers reflect a deeper redistribution of power in the global car market, while Chinese companies are strengthening their positions, including thanks to the development of electric transport.

What Audi's financial report says

According to Nikolaev, Audi's financial report points to a difficult market situation: over the first nine months of 2026, the group's operating profit fell by 26%, to about €1.2 billion. The company reported intensifying competition and a significant decline in deliveries in China and the United States. The expert links China's success to long-term state policy and consistent technological development; Western manufacturers, in his assessment, will have to compete not only with individual models but also with the speed of product renewal and production capacity. For European industry to remain competitive, it is also important to address the problem of energy costs.

Conclusions for Russia

Nikolaev believes that in the long run the spread of electric vehicles could reduce the demand for petroleum fuel. Therefore, in his view, Russia should pay more attention to deep processing of raw materials within the country: 'Questions like these are resolved on a horizon not of years but of decades.' Note that this is the assessment of a single expert, as presented in the Gazeta.Ru publication, not a confirmed forecast: the publication contains no independent data on whether such a scenario is actually unfolding. Earlier, the same outlet separately reported how to save money when buying a car in 2027.