The key facts

  • In the first nine months of 2026, China registered 4.648 million marriages — 9.8% fewer than a year earlier
  • In 2025, 7.92 million children were born in the country — 17% fewer than in 2024, and the population declined for the fourth year in a row
  • Beijing is introducing childcare subsidies and support for preschool education, but costs and changing attitudes toward family complicate these measures

Marriages continue to decline

China registered 4.648 million marriages in the first nine months of 2026 — 504,000, or 9.8%, fewer than in the same period a year earlier. These are figures from the Ministry of Civil Affairs of the PRC, published on Wednesday, which South China Morning Post drew attention to, Anadolu reports. The decline puts the temporary growth in the number of marriages recorded in 2025 at risk.

What this means for the birth rate

Independent demographer He Yafu from Guangdong province believes that by the end of 2026, marriage registrations will likely fall again year on year. Since childbirth in China remains closely tied to marriage, the drop in weddings could translate into fewer births as early as 2027.

Background: record-low birth rate

The 2025 figures underscore the scale of the problem: according to the National Bureau of Statistics, 7.92 million children were born in the country — 17% fewer than the 9.54 million in 2024. The birth rate fell to 5.63 per thousand people — the lowest level since the founding of the PRC in 1949. The population shrank by 3.39 million to approximately 1.405 billion — the fourth consecutive annual decline. Beijing is responding with childcare subsidies and expanded support for preschool education, but rising living costs and changing attitudes toward starting a family, as the outlet notes, continue to undermine the effect of these measures.