The key facts

  • Import growth will weaken the ruble only if currency payments for imports exceed the currency inflows from exporters
  • Moderate import growth in 2027 is possible if the key rate is lowered and the population shifts to more active spending
  • Support for the ruble could come from high prices for energy resources and metals, the Central Bank's tight policy and an improvement in geopolitics

Import growth does not automatically mean the ruble will weaken

An increase in Russian imports could weaken the ruble, but only under one condition: if the additional demand for foreign currency is not offset by export earnings. This was stated to Gazeta.Ru by Andrei Smirnov, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investments.

How pressure on the exchange rate builds up

According to Smirnov, importers need foreign currency to pay for goods, equipment, components and services from foreign suppliers, but an increase in purchases does not automatically mean higher demand specifically for dollars: settlements are also conducted in yuan, other currencies and rubles. The wider the gap between currency payments for imports and the available supply of currency from exporters, the higher the risk of devaluation. The situation becomes especially sensitive when foreign purchases increase while the sale of export earnings declines. Even a temporary concentration of large import payments, the expert added, can cause noticeable fluctuations in the exchange rate if the supply of currency on the market is small.

Forecast for 2027 and supporting factors

In 2027, Smirnov considers a moderate growth in imports possible. Such a scenario, in his view, could occur with a gradual reduction of the key rate and a shift of the population from predominantly saving money to more active spending — then demand for foreign goods would also rise. Pressure on the ruble could be restrained by high export prices, primarily for energy resources and metals, while additional support could come from the Bank of Russia's tight monetary policy and an improvement in the geopolitical situation. The final movement of the exchange rate, the expert concluded, will depend on the balance between currency inflows and payments. This is an analyst's commentary, not an official forecast: the publication contains no data indicating that the Central Bank or any other authority has confirmed such a scenario. Earlier, the same outlet reported on a forecast for the dollar exchange rate for the coming week.