The key facts

  • The exercises in Nowa Deba will take place from November 9 to 22, with about 2,800 troops from 11 NATO countries expected to participate
  • Expert Oleg Ivannikov suggested that the deployment of forces to Ukraine is being rehearsed, possibly in five western regions
  • According to him, Moscow considers NATO's presence in Ukraine unacceptable and may respond with military measures

Exercise scenario and scale

Exercises are planned in Poland in which service members of the 'coalition of the willing' will rehearse a scenario for deploying forces to Ukraine. The maneuvers are scheduled to take place from November 9 to 22 in Nowa Deba in southeastern Poland, with about 2,800 service members from 11 NATO countries expected to take part, led by the United Kingdom and France. This was reported by Gazeta.Ru citing the outlet's earlier publications.

Expert assessment and possible Moscow reaction

Military expert, reserve lieutenant colonel Oleg Ivannikov, adviser to the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, commented to aif.ru that the exercises may be preparation for dividing Ukrainian territory. In his view, this could concern five western regions of Ukraine: Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Volyn and Rivne.

Context

According to Ivannikov, Russian agencies will analyze the preparation and conduct of the maneuvers. He stressed that Moscow considers the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine unacceptable and may respond with military measures if it deems it necessary. Note that this is the expert's assessment, not an official statement: the organizers did not report the actual goals of the exercises in the cited publications. Earlier, the Latvian Armed Forces announced their own exercises on the border with Russia and Belarus.