The key facts
- The forecast is based on statistics from 204 countries for 1990–2023 within the Global Burden of Disease project
- In 2023, 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths were recorded worldwide; by 2050, 1.05 million and 514,000 are forecast
- Age-adjusted mortality fell by about 17.5% over three decades
Forecast through 2050
An international team of researchers has published a forecast in the journal Nature Medicine, according to which by 2050 the number of new cases of cervical cancer worldwide may exceed one million annually, while deaths from the disease will grow by almost 40%. This is reported by Life.ru. The work involved, among others, Russian scientists from HSE University and Sechenov University.
What the 1990–2023 data showed
The specialists analyzed medical statistics from 204 countries for 1990–2023 within the Global Burden of Disease project. Over three decades, the age-standardized incidence rate remained virtually unchanged, while mortality, adjusted for the age structure of the population, fell by about 17.5% thanks to advances in diagnostics, vaccination, and prevention.
2023 figures and expectations for mid-century
In 2023, the researchers estimated the global number of new diagnoses at 887,000 and deaths at 369,000. By mid-century these figures may reach 1.05 million and 514,000 respectively: the absolute number of cases will grow by about 20%, and the number of deaths by 39.3%. At the same time, according to the forecast, the frequency of new cases and deaths adjusted for age may decrease by 12.5% and 9% — the rise in the overall number of cases is linked in part to demographic changes.
Inequality between countries and assessment of efforts
The authors note that the situation remains particularly severe in low-income countries, where opportunities for early tumor detection and protection against human papillomavirus (HPV) are substantially limited. The scientists recalled that back in 2018 the WHO proposed achieving the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem, but in the authors' view, the efforts currently being made are insufficient to solve the problem.
Context on vaccination
Life.ru also recalls a previously published directive from Russian President Vladimir Putin to include HPV vaccination in the national immunization schedule. A domestically produced vaccine is provided for immunization; mass vaccination of girls aged 12–13 is planned to begin in the second half of 2027, and the Ministry of Health must submit a report on the implementation of the directive by June 1, 2027. This decision concerns Russia and is not directly related to the published forecast, but it concerns the same disease: the publication lists HPV among the factors against which protection is limited in low-income countries.
