The key facts

  • A record 1.57 billion international arrivals is forecast for 2026 — up 2% on 2025
  • Europe will grow by 5%, interregional travel will fall by 3%, and the Middle East will lose 40%
  • By 2032, 2.2 billion arrivals are expected, with Europe adding 226 million annual arrivals

A record year against the backdrop of fewer long-haul trips

According to the WTM Global Travel Report 2026, global tourism in 2026 will reach a record 1.57 billion international arrivals — 2% more than in 2025 — despite conflicts, rising airfares and pressure on consumer budgets. The report, prepared by Tourism Economics (part of Oxford Economics) based on data covering more than 185 countries, was published on the opening day of the World Travel Market exhibition at London's ExCeL, as reported by euronews.

Travellers stay closer to home

The key trend of 2026 is a shift toward travel within one's own region: such trips will grow by 3%, while interregional travel, including long-haul flights, will fall by 3%. The main beneficiary is Europe, where arrivals will increase by 5%, outpacing the global average; the region will also remain the largest by the number of international overnight stays (+4%). Far-flung routes suffered from more expensive flights: the report cites rising oil prices, reduced capacity at Gulf aviation hubs and traveller caution. The Middle East fell the hardest — down 40% in arrivals over the year.

Spending and the 2027–2032 outlook

Tourist spending at destinations (domestic and international) will grow by 9% to $7.8 trillion, while European leisure spending will reach $2.05 trillion; international tourists account for about a third of spending in Europe — the largest share among the three biggest markets (Europe, Asia, North America). Figures are expressed in nominal dollars and are not adjusted for inflation. In 2027, the industry is forecast to accelerate: global growth will reach 8%, interregional travel will rebound by 11%, and the Middle East will add 43%, but even that will not return the region to its 2025 level. By 2032, 2.2 billion arrivals are expected, with the largest absolute gain — 226 million per year — going to Europe. The report's authors warn that geopolitical tensions and renewed conflicts could delay the recovery.