The key facts

  • According to the forecast, fewer than 1.4 million children will be born in Greece in 2027–2046, compared with 1.8 million over the previous 20 years.
  • In 2026, about 65,000 births are expected, versus an average of 150,000 in 1951–1980.
  • The researcher links the lag in fertility behind Western and Northern Europe to differences in family support and gender equality.

Demographers' forecast

Greece is forecast to record fewer than 1.4 million births between 2027 and 2046, compared with 1.8 million over the previous two decades. This was reported by the newspaper Tovima, citing a demographic study; the data was also covered by Anadolu. The forecast assumes no positive net inflow of migrants and reflects declining fertility against the backdrop of a shrinking number of women of childbearing age.

Figures from the study

The study was conducted by Byron Kotzamanis, professor of demography at the University of Thessaly and director of the Institute of Demographic Research. According to his data, around 65,000 births are expected in 2026, compared with an average of roughly 150,000 per year in 1951–1980. For the decade 2021–2030, fewer than 700,000 births are projected, versus 920,000 in the previous decade — a decline of about 25%.

Causes and further decline

As the study showed, women born in 1930 had on average almost 2.3 children, whereas those born in 1985 had fewer than 1.5. Kotzamanis attributed part of Greece's lag behind Western and Northern Europe in fertility to differences in family support, gender equality, and conditions for combining work and parenthood. According to his data, births fell by 45% between 2009 and 2026, shrinking the size of future generations of potential parents; he warned that the demographic picture after 2046 could worsen when the small generations reach childbearing age. Even if some demographic processes slow down, the study says, births will continue to decline.