A week before the US midterms: Republicans hold both chambers, but the forecasts are not in their favor

What is being decided and what is at stake

Less than a week before the midterm elections scheduled for next Tuesday, Americans will determine the composition of the entire 435-seat House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats. Republicans currently control the House with a narrow 219–214 majority and the Senate 53–47. An overview of the pre-election situation is published by Euronews, which calls the likely outcome a referendum on the first two years of Trump's second term. For Democrats, it is enough to take three seats in the House to gain control of it.

Why the party of change has itself become the target

Two years ago, inflation and the economy returned Trump to the White House and gave Republicans both chambers: according to NBC exit polls, the economy was the top issue for 32% of voters, and Trump won them by an 81–18 margin. Now, Euronews notes, Republicans have themselves become the party in power and face the same demand for change. Inflation rose from 2.7% in November 2024 to 3.7% in September, mainly due to energy prices. According to a CNBC poll, only 34% approve of Trump's economic policy — the worst figure across both of his terms — while Reuters/Ipsos shows Democrats leading Republicans on economic trust for the first time (37% versus 33%).

War and gasoline prices

Euronews links the drop in approval ratings primarily to the unfulfilled promise of no new wars: CNN counted at least 53 instances when Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours or before taking office, yet the war continues. In February, Trump joined Israel's strikes on Iran, and nearly eight months later there is no end to the war in sight. According to AAA, gasoline averages $4.25 per gallon versus $2.98 before the war — for the first time in October the average price exceeded $4 — and diesel rose from $3.76 to $6.35, hitting Trump's rural base hardest: farmers, ranchers, and truckers.

Money is fleeing to safe states

Euronews considers the telling signal not the polls but the spending: the main Republican Senate supercommittee, the Senate Leadership Fund, announced a $342 million advertising plan in April across eight states — without Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska — but since September 1 it has spent or reserved about $180 million in precisely those three states, which Trump won by double digits. I don't think anyone had Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa on their bingo card, Mark Short, Trump's liaison to Congress during his first term, told USA Today. Rifts are also visible within the party: Marjorie Taylor Greene broke with Trump over the Epstein files, the wars, and affordability, and left Congress after he called her a traitor, while Joe Rogan reproached the president for a war whose cause cannot even be articulated.

Senate: five states within the margin of error

The real battle, according to Euronews, is for the Senate, where Democrats need a net gain of four seats. North Carolina looks to be tilting toward the Democrats, while the other decisive races are statistically tied. An Emerson poll puts James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton in Texas at 48–46% — notably, Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the primary after a late Trump endorsement. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown, whom Republicans unseated in 2024, leads Senator Jon Husted 47–44% according to a Suffolk University poll. The Hill's polling averages show Mary Peltola ahead of Dan Sullivan in Alaska (49.1–47.5%) and a dead heat between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek in Iowa (45.8–45.6%), while a Marist poll puts Troy Jackson ahead of Susan Collins in Maine (49–47%).

Forecasts: from a split to a rout

Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats an 80% probability of controlling the House and projects 238 seats, while Polymarket traders put the odds at 92% for the House and 67% for the Senate. The best scenario for Trump, according to Euronews, is a split: a minimal Democratic majority of 220–215 in the House alongside a Republican Senate that loses only North Carolina (markets give this outcome a 27% chance). In the worst case, NBC News allows for up to 263 seats for Democrats — the largest majority held by any party since 1990 — and up to 53 seats in the Senate with a full sweep of the swing states. In any scenario, the outlet concludes, Trump will face two years of subpoenas, investigations and blocked legislation, and a Democratic House could initiate impeachment proceedings.